One way or another the questions around Sean O’Malley will be answered by the fight against Aljamain Sterling

I will admit that I am an aging millennial, so I don’t really get the Sean O’Malley shtick. Experiencing his popularity is a somewhat foreign experience, like going to Nashville despite having never really listened to country music. Certain people are treated like gods in Music City, but without the appropriate background, they just seem like folks with comically large hats.

With that being said, there is a lot to like about O’Malley from a statistical perspective. In his 11-fight UFC/DWCS career, he has averaged 7.43 significant strikes per minute, which ranks fourth among ranked fighters. He has accomplished this high striking rate while absorbing only 3.54 significant strikes per minute, which is right at the average for a ranked fighter (3.55). The resulting +3.88 striking differential is the fifth highest among ranked fighters behind only light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill (+3.96), Umar Nurmagomedov (+4.12), Sergei Pavlovich (+4.39) and Tom Aspinall (+4.75).

When given the opportunity to work at his pace and at his desired range, O’Malley can really pile up the numbers. In his UFC debut back in 2017, he outlanded Terrion Ware 141 to 88 on significant strikes. At UFC 264, he battered replacement fighter Kris Moutinho to the tune of a 230 to 70 significant strike advantage.

Of course, there are plenty of questions of how he would respond against someone with a wrestling oriented game plan. Luckily for O’Malley his opponents have mostly fought him on his terms. Only six of his 11 opponents have even attempted a takedown, and only four were successful at wrestling him to the ground. 

On the other hand, there were two fights when things got somewhat dicey due to a grappling-based approach against O’Malley. Andre Soukhamthath, who left the UFC in 2019 with a 2-5 record, landed four takedowns and nearly pulled the upset. Petr Yan landed six takedowns and took the decision on 25 of the 26 media scores tracked by MMADecisions.com. Of course, two of the three judges did not agree, so now O’Malley fights for the title.

If concerns about O’Malley’s defensive wrestling and grappling are legitimate, then he is likely in for a long night against champion Aljamain Sterling. Prior to his fight against O’Malley, Yan had held his opponents in control positions for only 14.51% of his fight time, and he averaged 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. As previously stated, Yan landed six takedowns against O’Malley and held control positions for 38.22% of the fight time.

Coming into this fight, Sterling is averaging 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and has spent 30.39% of his fight time in control positions. He attempted at least one takedown in 17 of his 18 UFC fights to date. When he controls at least 15% of the fight time, he has gone 13-1 in the Octagon with the only loss being a controversial split decision defeat against Bryan Caraway in 2016. 

Sterling’s control and takedown numbers are stronger than Yan’s, so it is easy to assume that he will be able to, at the very least, duplicate that success. However, there are also two areas where Sterling will present an even stiffer test for O’Malley.

Despite controlling 38.22% of the fight time, Yan managed only five significant clinch strikes and six significant ground strikes in the 15-minute fight. Sterling is a much more adept striker in those positions. Against Henry Cejudo, he landed 32 significant strikes in the clinch and on the ground. In his previous fight against TJ Dillashaw, that number was 55. For his UFC career, 34% of his landed significant strikes have come in one of those two positions.

Sterling is also much more of a submission threat than Yan. While Yan has registered only two submission attempts in his UFC career, Sterling has averaged 0.80 submission attempts per 15 minutes. On top of that, he is quite adept at taking the back and maintaining control, even when he is unable to score takedowns. 

For these reasons, Sterling enters as a rather large favorite over O’Malley. A lot of things can happen in a 25-minute fight, but it is hard to imagine Sterling being unable to control long portions of the contest. The champion has been stopped early with strikes before, so O’Malley certainly has a shot. However, if it comes down to who can win the majority of the five rounds, that certainly appears to favor the Sterling.