Rafael Dos Anjos and Vicente Luque are not strangers to battles of attrition

Sorry for missing last week’s show. I had planned to get the article done early in the week, but my travel plans ruined that. My bid for a world championship in Street Fighter went about as well as expected at Evo 2023. Considering I had not downloaded the game until a week before the tournament, and I needed my opponent’s help to connect my controller, finishing with a 1-2 record and placing 3,073rd out of 7,083 was pretty solid showing. Of course, my only victory came via forfeit when the other competitor failed to show. Big shout to Shadow780 for laughing off my antics and finishing top 100 in King of Fighters. Anyways, on to the fight…

This Saturday the UFC returns to the Apex with a welterweight main event between Rafael Dos Anjos and Vicente Luque. Dos Anjos appears to be entering the twilight of his career, but he has still won three of his last four. Luque has long been an action fighter who is unafraid to take damage, but he was stopped for the first time in the UFC a little over one year ago. 

Both of these fighters have absorbed a substantial number of significant strikes in their UFC careers. Through 33 UFC fights, Dos Anjos has absorbed 1,545 significant strikes, which is the third most among all ranked fighters behind only Angela Hill (1,659) and Max Holloway (2,086). Luque has absorbed 977 significant strikes, the 15th most among ranked fighters, in only 19 UFC fights.

In the preview of Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje II, I talked about how that amount of damage can ultimately add up and usher in a fighter’s decline. At these levels, it could easily be a factor in this fight for either fighter, but it is hard to really quantify who it will impact more in this contest.

On the other hand, it is rather clear who absorbs more significant strikes on a per minute basis. Dos Anjos has absorbed 3.21 significant strikes per minute, which is slightly below the average for a ranked fighter (3.55). Luque absorbs 5.51, which is the 13th worst strike absorption rate among ranked fighters.

For most of his UFC career, Luque has been willing to walk through punishment in order to land his own strikes. He either landed his own knockdown blows or won an extended battle of attrition. He has won three UFC fights where he has absorbed 80 or more significant strikes.

That is what makes his last performance against Geoff Neal so concerning. Going into the contest, Luque had been knocked down only twice in 18 fights. Against Neal, he was dropped twice and finished for the first time in the Octagon. If that is a sign of decline, he could really struggle here against Dos Anjos. The declining ability to absorb punishment is always an issue for fighters, but it is a bigger detriment to fighters like Luque who rely on their chins to be successful. 

Even if Luque is at his best, there is still one area where Dos Anjos is likely to have an advantage. While Luque does the vast majority of his striking at distance (88%), Dos Anjos is much more diverse in terms of where he does his striking. 67% of his landed significant strikes have been at distance, but 17% have come in the clinch and another 16% have come on the ground.

Despite not really having the reputation of a grappler, Dos Anjos is kind of an under the radar control fighter. He attempts a high 5.73 takedowns per minute and lands a respectable 2.05. He has also held his opponents in control positions for 28% of his total fight time.

Dos Anjos’ control time is actually rather interesting, since it appears to be heavily correlated with his success. In fights where he has held control positions for at least 50% of the fight time, he is a perfect 8-0. In fights where he has controlled at least 20% of the fight time, he is 17-2. When his proportion of control time falls below 20%, he is only 1-5 in the UFC.

While Luque has been controlled for 19% of his fight time, which is somewhat high for a ranked fighter. However, there is reason to believe this might not hinder Luque on Saturday. He has been controlled for at least 20% of the fight time in eight of his UFC fights, and he has gone 5-3 in these fights. 

In the end, this is a fight where both fighters have absorbed a lot of punishment, and that introduces a factor of randomness. Dos Anjos’ ability to change the position of the fight and strike from a variety of positions gives him the edge, but with 25 minutes to work, Luque will have plenty of opportunities to finish the fight.