Rafael Dos Anjos has taken a lot of damage, but he will still be a tough test for Rafael Fiziev

This Saturday’s main event between Rafael Fiziev and Rafael Dos Anjos is an interesting bit of matchmaking as the bout asks key questions of both fighters. The result will likely say a lot about each fighter’s prospects going forward.

Despite having some notable knockout highlights on his resume, Dos Anjos really is at his best when he is able to establish control positions against his opponents. During his UFC career, he has gone 17-1 when he is able to spend at least 20% of the fight time in control positions, and he is only 3-10 when less time has been spent in control. Fighters earn control time when they are in the top position on the ground, pushing an opponent into the cage or holding back mount. 

Fiziev comes from a Muay Thai background, so one might expect him to have issues with the grappling realm of MMA. However, that has not really been in the case in the UFC. He has allowed his six Octagon opponents to control him for only 2.65% of his fight time. The most control time he has surrendered in a UFC fight was 61 seconds in his second fight with the promotion against Alex White.

None of Fiziev’s previous UFC opponents really have the type of grappling and control attack that Dos Anjos is likely to present on Saturday. It remains a question going into the fight. In theory, he should have an advantage if he is able to turn the fight into a distance striking contest.

In the UFC, 89% of Fiziev’s landed significant strikes have come at distance. That is the 14th largest proportion among ranked fighters. Dos Anjos does a large part of his striking in the clinch and on the ground with only 67% of his landed significant strikes coming at distance.

Fiziev also lands at a much higher rate than his opponent. He lands 5.35 significant strikes compared to only 3.62 for Dos Anjos. However, defense might be an issue. Fiziev has absorbed 5.57 significant strikes per minute, which is the 10th highest strike absorption rate among ranked fighters. This leaves Fiziev with a negative striking differential of -0.22.

Many of the recent converts from pure striking sports have relied on their defense and ability to control distance in the UFC. For example, Cyril Gane (2.27 SApM) and Israel Adesanya (2.67 SApM) have made it a point to avoid strikes from their opponents. That has not been the case for Fiziev.

Of course, these numbers are only based on Fiziev’s first six UFC fights, and they are somewhat inflated by his fight against Bobby Green. In fact, 143 of the 350 significant strikes he has absorbed in the UFC came in that one fight against Green. Excluding that fight, his striking numbers look a fair bit better. In his five other fights, he landed 4.85 per minute, absorbed 4.33 and therefore had a +0.52 differential.

If Fiziev truly has defensive liabilities, Dos Anjos will likely be around long enough to have moments in the striking. The Brazilian has been extremely durable during his UFC career. He suffered a knockdown against Jeremy Stephens in his UFC debut back in 2008, and he has not been knocked down in his 30 fights since.

Despite this durability, Dos Anjos has absorbed a ton of punishment over his career. He has absorbed 1467 significant strikes in the UFC, which is the second most among ranked fighters. The only ranked fighter who has absorbed more is Max Holloway.

It might not be this fight, but that amount of accumulated damage will almost certainly have an impact on Dos Anjos down the road.

If Fiziev is able to maintain distance, he should be able to work his way to a decision victory. It remains to be seen if he will be able to fend off the control game of Dos Anjos, but if successful it will be a big step on his way towards title contention.