Derrick Lewis obviously brings a lot of striking power into the Octagon. He has scored KO/TKO victories in 11 of his 20 UFC fights. To avoid this power, many of his opponents have attempted to close the distance and work for takedowns or at least hold him against the cage.
Lewis successfully defends 52.7% of the takedown attempts against him, which sounds somewhat respectable. However, that rate ranks 144th among ranked fighters. Even when he stops takedowns, he ends up stuck against the cage for extended periods of time.
UFCStats.com recently added control time to their display pages for fighters. Control time is basically the time a fighter spends in the top position on the ground and pressing an opponent into the cage. Lewis has allowed his opponents to control him for 33 percent of his total fight time.
This tendency to cede control should play into the game of his opponent on Saturday. Curtis Blaydes has landed 6.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is behind only the Tasmanian Devil named Merab Dvalishvili (7.71) and former NCAA champion Gregor Gillespie (7.02) among ranked fighters. On top of that, he has been in control positions for 58% of his cage time.
Control is actually an essential part of Blaydes’ game. In his career, he has had control time for 60% or more in seven of his 12 UFC fights. In those fights, he is 6-0 (with one no contest). When that percentage dips below 60%, Blaydes is only 3-2. In his two losses against Francis Ngannou, he has registered only 11% and 0% of control time respectively.
It seems very likely that Blaydes will be able to use his takedowns and control to dominate this fight for the majority of the 25 minutes. The betting odds certainly see this as the most likely scenario. However, there is a bit of a silver lining for Lewis.
Only 55% of Lewis’ fight time has been spent in neutral positions (at distance or in a neutral clinch). He has allowed his opponents to control at least 40% of the fight time in 10 of his fights. In those fights, he is 8-2 with six stoppages. Even if he allows an opponent to control, he is still dangerous.
Despite seemingly having cardio issues, Lewis remains dangerous throughout the contest. Even though his fight against Alexander Volkov played out mostly at distance, Lewis was still really struggling. However, he was still able to finish the fight in the third round. His win despite being outlanded by 82 significant strikes still represents the largest comeback finish in UFC history.