Repost: Serghei Spivac’s path to victory over Derrick Lewis might not be so clear
This is a repost from Nov. 17, 2022. The two were originally set to meet in the main event of UFC Vegas 65, but the bout was canceled at the last minute. It now takes place this Saturday, or actually early Sunday morning considering the late start time.
Serghei Spivac has been fighting in the UFC since 2019, and he does have some impressive wins. However, Saturday is really his chance to breakthrough as he faces off against heavyweight antihero Derrick Lewis in the main event of UFC Vegas 65.
In theory, Spivac has the skill set to wrestle his way to a victory. In the UFC, he has averaged 4.09 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate currently ranks 10th among all ranked fighters. He has also spent 30% of his fight time in control positions, which is above the average for a ranked fighter (21%).
While the grappling numbers are impressive, Spivac has been somewhat overly reliant on his ground game. In the UFC, he has gone 5-0 when he is able to land at least one takedown. However, when he has failed to land a takedown, he is only 1-3. His only UFC victory without a takedown came against Aleksei Oleinik.
In that fight, Spivac was able to hold control positions for 32% of the fight time. In his three UFC losses, he has failed to secure a single second of control time.
On the surface this seems to open a clear path to victory for Spivac against Lewis. During his UFC career, Lewis has allowed his opponents to land 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, and he has been held in control positions for 30% of his fight time.
This makes sense considering many fighters chose to enter the grappling realm against Lewis due to his prolific power. In his last victory over Chris Daukaus, he set the record for most KO/TKO victories in a UFC career with 13.
Lewis has achieved these 13 KO/TKO victories while landing only 580 significant strikes. That 44.62 significant strikes per KO/TKO average is currently seventh among ranked fighters and behind only Jairzinho Rozenstruik (41), Tom Aspinall (37), Chris Daukaus (36.25), Illia Topuria (27.33), Francis Ngannou (22.9) and Sergei Pavlovich (21.5).
That explains why it is likely that Spivac will try to grapple with Lewis, and he certainly has the stats to back up that strategic choice. However, he might find it tougher to find victory that way than expected.
In UFC fights where Lewis has allowed an opponent to land a takedown, he is 11-2. In fights where his opponent has failed to land a takedown, he is only 6-6. Despite his power striking, it seems that Lewis is most vulnerable when his opponents choose to engage against him in the striking realm instead of working for takedowns.
This could be due to the fact that Lewis has deceptively good defense on the floor and finds ways to explode back to his feet. This could also be caused by heavyweights exhausting themselves while hunting for takedowns and therefore leaving themselves open for Lewis’ offense.
Spivac enters this fight as the favorite, and that is likely the result of Lewis appearing to be in decline after losing three of his last four fights. Not only did he lose those three fights, but all three were pretty devastating finishes. However, Spivac is unlikely to present challenges similar to Ciryl Gane, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich.
If Spivac sticks to his usual strategy, it could play into Lewis’ hands. On the other hand, Lewis’ recent skid could be the result of physical decline. If that is the case, he could struggle against Spivac. His grappling defense and striking game are so focused around explosive actions that slight decline in physical ability could be devastating for his prospects against a persistent grappler.