Rob Font's steady striking approach vs. Cody Garbrandt's zero-sum game power
This weekend Cody Garbrandt will be back in action against Rob Font. It will be the former bantamweight champion’s first fight since stopping Raphael Assuncao in 2020. If history is any guide, the fight will likely feature some fireworks. For lack of a better cliche, most Garbrandt fights are “kill or be killed” contests.
During his UFC career, Garbrandt has averaged 1.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is the ninth highest rate among ranked fighters. On the other hand, he has allowed his opponents to land 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes. That represents the fifth worst rate among the same group. When mapped against the other ranked bantamweights, Garbrandt clearly finds himself on an island.
All three of Garbrandt’s UFC losses have been via striking stoppage, and all three of those stoppages came in a row prior to his last fight. There were early questions about Garbrandt’s chin after he suffered a scary knockout as an amateur (see below). However, he did not suffer a knockdown through his first six UFC fights.
In Garbrandt’s defense, all five of the knockdowns he has surrendered came against TJ Dillashaw and Pedro Munhoz, and he has managed to land at least one knockdown in all of his victories. It will be interesting to see how that plays against Font.
In his 11-fight UFC career, Font has never been knocked down even though he has absorbed 384 significant strikes. He has scored six knockdowns of his own and averages 0.90 knockdowns per 15 minutes. However, Font clearly has a much more volume-based approach than Garbrandt.
Font lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 3.83 and has a +1.38 striking differential. Compared to Garbrandt’s +0.02 differential, Font appears to have a big advantage if he can avoid the power from the former champion. The following compares Font’s striking volume to the rest of the ranked bantamweights.
These stats seem to point to a pretty straightforward dynamic. If Font can avoid Garbrandt’s power, he will likely get ahead on the strike count and potentially take advantage of Garbrandt’s inability to withstand power. However, there is another potential scenario that may favor “No Love.”
Back in 2016, Font faced off against veteran John Lineker. The former UFC fighter had a 0.96 knockdowns per 15 minute rate in the Octagon. Lineker was not able to score a knockdown. However, his power seemed to have an effect on Font. During the 15 minute fight, Font was outlanded 80 to 40 on significant strikes, and he only attempted 7.60 significant strikes per minute. That is the lowest output of his UFC career.
Even if Garbrandt is not able to drop Font, he might be able to dictate the terms of the fight due to his power. If the potential for power shots deters Font’s volume, the fight may swing in favor of Garbrandt.
Font’s volume striking approach will likely remain the most important factor in this fight. However, 25 minutes is a long time to avoid power strikes from an opponent. Also, Garbrandt’s power may still be able to influence the fight even if he is not scoring knockdowns and finishing.