Stats point to a one-sided victory for Ciryl Gane over Derrick Lewis

On the night Francis Ngannou stopped Stipe Miocic to become the UFC heavyweight champion, you would be hard pressed to find someone hoping for an interim title fight between Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane. However, that is the fight that headlines UFC 265 this Saturday. 

Gane opened as the betting favorite, and his advantage on the books has only grown. In a surprise to noone, that stats favor him as well. Lewis retains his usual fight finishing power, but the specifics of Gane’s advantages seem to make a Lewis stoppage all the more unlikely.

The first advantage that stands out for Gane is his striking differential. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.60 per minute and therefore has a +2.53 differential. His differential ranks eighth among ranked fighters and well ahead of his opponent. Lewis lands 2.59 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.16 for a +0.43 differential.

While +2.53 is clearly ahead of +0.43, that does not really capture the entirety of Gane’s advantage. This fight will likely take place at distance. In that position, Gane has a +2.11 differential, while Lewis’ falls all the way to -0.35. While Lewis has the well earned reputation of a power striker, a lot of his landed significant strikes (43%) have actually come on the ground. He can do a lot of damage at distance, but he lands only 0.99 significant strikes per minute at range. 

Gane’s defense will also give Lewis a lot of trouble on Saturday. He absorbs only 2.60 significant strikes per minute, which is well below the average for a ranked fighter (3.44). On top of that, Gane does a pretty incredible job of protecting his head. He has absorbed 238 significant strikes in the UFC but only 93, or 39%, have been head strikes. Considering 90% of Gane’s landed significant strikes have been at distance, this number is rather incredible.

Only 12 ranked UFC fighters see at least 90% of their landed significant strikes come at distance. Of those fighters, Gane and Amir Albazi are the only ones to keep their proportion of head strikes below 50%.

Lewis is basically a headhunter. 78% of his landed significant strikes have been head shots. That ranks 22nd among ranked fighters. While landing power is clearly his best path to win, he does not really have a solid plan B.

The good news for “The Black Beast” is that his plan A has been pretty damn effective. He has scored 12 KO/TKO victories in his 21 UFC flights. That 57% ratio ranks 12th among ranked UFC fighters. Among fighters with at least 10 UFC fights, it ranks second behind heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou (10 KO/TKOs in 13 fights). 

The crowd might play a factor here. It will clearly be behind Lewis, and it will be the first time Gane has fought in a main event in the UFC with fans in the audience. With that being said, Gane showed the discipline necessary to outpoint a fighter from the outside over the course of a 25-minute fight. He may not turn on the volume and stop Lewis, but a bout with Gane staying ahead on the strike count on the way to a decision victory seems quite likely.