Style contrast heavily favors Khamzat Chimaev in battle against Nate Diaz

Khamzat Chimaev had arguably one of the best starts to a UFC career in history. He famously won his first four fights while absorbing only one significant strike. That mythical level of defense came back down to reality against Gilbert Burns, but Chimaev was able to win and extend his UFC winning streak to five against his toughest test to date.

Even after the Burns fight, Chimaev still has impressive striking numbers. He has landed 7.89 significant strikes per minute, which is the second highest among ranked fighters and behind only Casey O’Neil (8.65). At the same time, he has absorbed only 4.30 per minute and therefore has a +3.59 striking differential. That differential ranks sixth among ranked UFC fighters. 

Through his first four fights, Chimaev's method of avoiding strikes was rather simple. Against Gerald Meerschaert, he stopped the fight via knockout in only 17 seconds. In the other three contests, he held control positions for an incredible 94% of the fight time.

Chimaev clearly was more interested in striking against Burns, but he did not abandon his wrestling entirely. He attempted three takedowns and finished two, but he was only able to accumulate 2:23 of control time in the 15-minute fight. This resulted in a contest that mostly played out as a distance striking affair.

At distance, Burns numerically outlanded Chimaev 99 to 87. On one hand, this is seemingly a non-issue since Chimaev appeared to land the harder shots and won the first and third rounds on all three scorecards. On the other hand, it might say a lot about Chimaev’s prospects for striking at distance going forward.

Burns is a gifted and accomplished grappler who has worked hard to become a better striker on the job. He has clearly made strides and has relied on his striking to win important fights. At the same time, Burns is still at his best when he has a grappling advantage.

Over the course of his UFC career, Burns has been outlanded at distance in nine of his 18 fights. His fight against Chimaev was actually the fourth best distance striking performance of his entire career.

It is entirely possible that Burns’s striking has continued to improve. It is also possible that Chimaev tried for an early knockout and got sucked into a protracted striking exchange. Nitpicking a decision victory is not likely the best use of time. However, his ability to outland an elite striker when he is unable to score takedowns is now a question.

The good news for Chimaev is that the question will almost certainly not be asked on Saturday night. His opponent in the main event of UFC 279 will be Nate Diaz. The colorful fighter is not a pushover by any means, but he presents a rather easy stylistic challenge for Chimaev.

Diaz is a dynamic submission grappler who has won 11 fights by submission in his UFC/WEC career. However, his ability to attempt and finish submissions has dwindled as the opposition got tougher. Through his first 20 UFC/WEC fights, Diaz averaged 1.91 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which would rank 11th among ranked fighters. In his last 11 UFC fights, he has averaged only 0.64.

While Diaz is a strong offensive striker. His 238 significant strikes landed against Donald Cerrone are the fourth most ever landed in a UFC fight, and he did it in only three round. He does a surprising amount of his work in the clinch. 23% of his significant strikes have come in the position. There are only nine currently ranked fighters with a larger proportion. He averages 1.03 significant clinch strikes per minute, which would be the 11th highest among ranked fighters if Diaz was ranked.

One of the biggest factors working against Diaz in this fight is the fact that he struggles when opponents control him. During his UFC career, he has been held in control positions by opponents for 28% of his total fight time. At times this has drastically limited his ability to land his striking offense at distance and work in the clinch.

Diaz has been controlled for over 50% of the fight time in seven of his UFC fights. Not surprisingly, he has had a losing record in these fights (2-5). In fact, he is only 6-9 when allowing his opponent to control at least 15% of the fight. 

Unfortunately for Diaz, his takedown defense appears like it will be a major liability in this fight against Chimaev. Diaz has allowed his opponents to land 2.68 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. There are currently only five ranked fighters with worse takedown against rates. Chimaev has landed 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has managed to score a takedown in all of his UFC fights that lasted longer than 17 seconds.

Considering it is his first main event in the UFC, expect Chimaev to mix it up on the feet, at least early in the contest. However, if he runs into any trouble, he will almost certainly be able to score takedowns and work from the top position. Diaz remains a game opponent, and he showed in his last fight that he remains dangerous throughout the entire 25-minutes. However, the style contrast simply does not work in his favor. This fight could easily look a lot more like Diaz’s bout against Rafael dos Anjos and less like his two-fight series against Conor McGregor. 

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