Supporters of 'The Korean Zombie' must hope that the Brian Ortega fight was not a sign of decline
In the main event of this Saturday’s fight night, Chan Sung Jung returns to action for the first time after zombie walking through his fight against Brian Ortega last October. He will face Dan Ige who comes into the bout with a lot more momentum.
“The Korean Zombie” was outlanded 127 to 62 on significant strikes and 118 to 62 at distance against Ortega. The result was rather shocking for two reasons. First, Jung is usually a reliably strong distance striker. Second, the world had never seen a striking performance like that from Ortega. The current TUF coach came into the bout having been outlanded in six of nine UFC fights.
Jung should hope that the fight says more about Ortega’s development than his decline. He lands a respectable 3.06 significant strikes per minute at distance. However, after the Ortega fight, he is now absorbing 3.69 significant strikes per minute for a -0.63 differential in the position. That absorption rate is the 24th worst among ranked UFC fighters.
It is never a good sign to have a negative differential at distance. All fights start on the feet and taking the fight to other positions usually takes a lot of energy against top fighters. However, it is worse in Jung’s case, because he does the vast majority of his striking at distance. In the UFC, 74% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. His second best striking position is on the ground (17%), but he averages only 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Ige also does the majority of his striking at distance as 70% of his landed significant strikes have been at distance. He is slightly less offensive in the position than Jung as he lands 2.77 per minute at distance, but he also absorbs only 2.60 for a +0.17 distance differential.
On top of that, Ige may have the ability to take the fight to the ground if necessary. He averages 1.32 takedowns per 15 minutes. Ige is also not afraid to spam attempts if necessary as he attempts 6.09 per 15 minutes.
Despite his seeming defensive liabilities, “The Korean Zombie” may have the edge if he is able to stop takedowns and show persistent volume. Ige has struggled against volume strikers during his time in the UFC. He is only 1-2 when allowing more than 3.73 significant strikes per minute. His only victory in those three fights was a split decision over Edson Barboza where 16 of the 18 media scorecards collected by MMADecisions.com had Barboza as the rightful winner.
While this might be a clear path to victory for Jung, it seems unlikely that he will be able to continue the pressure for the entire five-round fight. He has not won a fight that lasted longer than a round since 2012. Since returning from an extended hiatus in 2017, Jung has appeared to show off outstanding power. However, in the five-fight span, he has averaged 0.79 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is only slightly higher than his 0.74 rate prior to the break.
Even then, Ige has shown an ability to excel early in fights as well. In his last fight, he scored a literal one-punch knockout over Gavin Tucker (see above), and he “punked” Mike Santiago in his second UFC fight back in 2018.
Ige has struggled when his opponents have been able to turn up the volume. On paper that seems to set up a fight that favors “The Korean Zombie.” However, recently longer fights have not been kind to him, and his ability to outland opponents at distance has to be questioned after his last performance. Ige seems to at least match Jung in terms of distance striking and fight finishing ability. On top of that, his persistent takedown game represents a legitimate “plan b” that “The Korean Zombie” simply does not have.