Tai Tuivasa is on quite the streak, but will momentum be enough against Ciryl Gane?
After three-straight losses, it looked like the promising rise of Tai Tuivasa was at a definitive end. However, he turned things around in 2020 with a first-round stoppage of veteran Stefan Struve. Tuivasa now finds himself riding a five-fight winning streak with all of his victories coming via KO/TKO.
For his UFC career, he has averaged 1.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which currently ranks sixth among all ranked fighters. During his recent streak, his power has been even more prevalent. Tuivasa has scored a knockdown in all five of his recent wins and is averaging 3.94 knockdowns per 15 minutes. That rate would be third behind only fellow heavyweights Chris Daukaus (4.02) and Sergi Pavlovich (4.76).
On Saturday, Tuivasa gets a huge opportunity in the main event against recent interim UFC heavyweight title challenger Ciryl Gane. “Bon Gamin” started his UFC run with seven-straight wins but suffered his first professional defeat against champion Francis Ngannou earlier this year at UFC 270.
Outside of the power, it is hard to really find a statistical area that favors Tuivasa. Gane has landed 4.83 significant strikes per minute, absorbed only 2.56 and therefore has a +2.56 striking differential. That differential ranks 12th among all ranked fighters. Tuivasa’s +0.98 differential is only slightly above the average for ranked fighters (+0.90).
Many fighters with strong striking differentials achieve the status by dominating positionally to avoid offense of an opponent and also strike from advantageous positions. For example, Erin Blachfield currently has the ninth best striking differential among ranked fighters at +3.19. She has held her opponents in control positions for 60% of her fight time and only 55% of her landed significant strikes have come at distance.
This is not the case for Gane. He has done the vast majority of his striking at range, and 87% of his landed significant strikes have been at distance. He has only held opponents in control positions for nine percent of his cage time. The following charts show that only a few fighters excel in terms of striking differential while doing most of their striking at distance.
Despite his superlative striking numbers, Gane did show some clear deficiencies against Ngannou. The champion had landed exactly one takedown and held his opponents in control positions for four percent of his cage time. Against Gane, he landed four takedowns and controlled 34% of the fight time. Did Ngannou make strides as a wrestler, or did Gane’s weakness in the area of the game get tested for the first time?
While Tuivasa’s brawling and power have been vital elements of his approach during his recent win streak, it is hard to see that alone carrying him to a victory against Gane. The former interim champion is seemingly too skilled of a striker and too willing to stick to a game plan to get sucked into that kind of fight. Gane has never been knocked down in the UFC, and he has never been stopped due to strikes through 11 professional MMA fights and 13 kickboxing fights.
Can Tuivasa make a difference with his grappling? He has attempted three takedowns in his 11-fight UFC career and landed exactly zero. At times Tuivasa has seemed not only disinterested in wrestling, but he also allowed his opponents to land 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. That rate ranks 162nd among ranked fighters. His wrestling stats would seem to indicate this is not a tool to use against Gane.
However, he may still be able to have success in the clinch. In Tuivasa’s last two fights against Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis, 64% of his landed significant strikes were in the clinch. The devastating elbow that finished Lewis also came in the position.
Then again, Gane has only absorbed 14 significant clinch strikes in his eight-fight UFC career. It might be a better position for Tuivasa, but it is by no means a clear path to victory. If he can’t get to Gane early with his power, it could be a long night for him despite his recent surge.