The fight against Alexander Volkov will say a lot about about Tom Aspinall’s future
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Tom Aspinall has some of the best numbers in the heavyweight division and the promotion overall. He currently has a +4.83 striking differential, which is the second highest among ranked UFC fighters and behind only Khamzat Chimaev (+8.60). Aspinall lands 7.19 significant strikes and absorbs only 2.37. He has been absurdly accurate in the UFC. He has landed 65% of his significant strike attempts while avoiding 70% of his opponents’ attempts. That accuracy is second best among ranked UFC fighters, behind only Chimaev (77%), and the defense is fourth best behind only Amanda Ribas (70.43%), Manon Fiorot (70.92%), Dominick Cruz (71.48%) and Chimaev (75%).
As you can see, it is rare for a fighter with high output to retain accuracy. At present there are only four ranked fighters who land at least 7.00 significant strikes per minute and land over 60% of their attempts: Aspinall, Chimaev, Justin Gaethje and Sean O’Malley.
Of course all these numbers come with a clear and necessary caveat. The numbers are based only on Aspinall’s four UFC fights, and he has spent less than 11 minutes combined in those four trips into the Octagon. Aspinall and his numbers will likely get a solid test this weekend as he faces off against Alexander Volkov. Volkov presents three interesting challenges that should push Aspinall. First, he presents different physical challenges than all of Aspinall’s previous UFC opponents, Second, for the most part Volkov is rather durable. Third, Volkov is also a high volume striker and had success against even some of the most defensive heavyweights.
Volkov is 79 inches tall and has an 80-inch reach. Not only are both these measurements greater than Aspinall, but they are also larger than any of Aspinall’s UFC opponents. Aspinall appears to rely on his quickness to close the distance and land. That might not be an option against someone as long as Volkov.
After 43 professional MMA fights, Volkov has only been stopped by strikes twice. His first KO/TKO defeat came against Vitaly Minakov at Bellator 108, and his second was against Derrick Lewis in 2018. In his UFC career, Volkov has absorbed 537 significant strikes and only been knocked down twice.
Even though Volkov was dropped and finished by Lewis, he outlanded the crowd favorite 121 to 39 on significant strikes before being finished. He lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute and has a +2.02 striking differential. When he is not being taken down, Volkov is a high volume striker. He does a good job of throwing range-finding strikes and leg kicks even when opponents are pressing forward and landing. For example, against Ciryl Gane, Volkov managed to land 115 significant strikes. That total from that one fight represents 39% of the significant strikes absorbed by Gane in his eight-fight UFC career.
Based on what we have seen from Aspinall so far, he deserves to be the favorite over Volkov. However, the former Bellator champion appears to be the biggest challenge of his UFC run to date. He will likely be able to survive an early rush from Aspinall, and he will likely be around for a longer fight than the British fighter has had recently. Aspinall’s performance against Volkov will say a lot about his prospects moving forward in the UFC heavyweight division.