The fighter who can establish a healthy striking rate will have the advantage in the Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier bout

Back in 2014 there was a mini-controversy after a DC public school teacher asked “sixth-graders to compare George W. Bush to Adolf Hitler.” While the assignment was likely in bad taste, many of the headlines obscured the fact that the exercise was a Venn diagram. As any Millennial who went to high school knows, the purpose of a Venn diagram is to both compare and contrast.

When it comes to MMA statistics, it is usually rather easy to spot the points of contrast between two fighters. However, in terms of the upcoming middleweight bout between Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, there is a long list of similarities. If we were using a Venn diagram, we would likely run out of space in the middle section, which is always the biggest issue with the Venn diagram.

Both Vettori (81%) and Cannonier (83%) do the vast majority of their striking at distance, and they both find themselves in basically the same spot in the significant strikes landed per minute and significant strikes absorbed per minute scatter plot. Vettori lands 4.38 and absorbs 3.65 for a +0.73 differential. Cannonier’s differential is slightly lower at +0.14 based on a 4.00 land rate and a 3.86 absorption rate. 

The similarities do not stop there. Interestingly enough both fighters seem to be dependent on the ability to land strikes at a high rate. In his 15-fight UFC career, Cannonier has gone a perfect 7-0 when he is able to land 3.93 significant strikes per minute or more in a fight. When his striking rate falls below 3.93, he has gone only 2-6. His only victories with a striking rate under 3.93 were his first-round knockout over an aged Anderson Silva and a decision over Kelvin Gastelum.

Vettori has basically the same split in his record. He fought to a draw against Omari Akhmedov in 2017. In that fight, he landed at a 4.40 significant strikes per minute rate. When he has been above that rate, he has gone a perfect 7-0. When his rate fell below 4.40, he is only 2-4. Those two wins are his wrestling-based decision over Kevin Holland (11 takedowns) and a first-round submission over Alberto Uda in his UFC debut.

Both fighters have been at their best when landing at a high rate, and if history holds that rate will likely say a lot about who will come out victorious on Saturday. One thing I have started noticing more and more is that many of the best MMA fighters are able to not only avoid strikes from their opponents but also limit the volume of opponents in general. Obviously wrestlers like Khabib Nurmagomedov do this by controlling position and scoring takedowns. However, other fighters like Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski are able to do this while spending most of their time striking.

Those more versed in striking technique than I am likely have better explanations for this ability. For the purpose of this fight, we can look at how the fighters’ striking rates have been impacted by their previous opponents by looking at the opponent’s career strike absorption rate. 

Both fighters have similar record splits based on the career strike absorption rate of their opponents, but it is not as stark as the previously discussed split. Cannonier has gone 4-4 against opponents with a 3.30 significant strikes absorbed per minute rate or better, and he has gone 5-2 against opponents with higher rates. Vettori has gone 2-3-1 against fighters who absorb 2.88 significant strikes or fewer, and he is 7-1 against opponents with higher absorption rates. 

In the end, Vettori should be the small favorite thanks to his slightly better striking defense. He has absorbed 3.65 significant strikes per minute, while Cannonier has absorbed 3.86. Also a larger share of Vettori’s losses have come against opponents with abnormally strong striking defense from a statistical perspective.