The Heavyweight Grappling Machine: Can Jailton Almeida dominate the heavyweight division?
Most MMA fans would agree that the UFC’s heavyweight division needs some new blood. That new contender might be Jailton Almeida. After a victory on the Contenders Series in 2021, he joined the UFC the following year. After five fights in the Octagon, he has picked up five stoppages.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of his performance through these five fights is he has only absorbed nine more significant strikes than I have, and I do not fight in the UFC as a profession. Almeida absorbed seven significant strikes in his DWCS fight and has since absorbed only two in his first four UFC strikes. This amounts to 0.34 significant strikes against per minute rate, which is best strike absorption rate among ranked UFC fighters.
Of course, the way Almeida avoids strikes is pretty obvious. He is not some matador who dodges, dips, ducks, dives and dodges strikes, he simply takes his opponents down and controls them before they are able to even attempt to land significant damage against him.
In the UFC, Almeida has landed 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the second highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. His takedown rate is only behind Muhammad Mokaev (7.34) and higher even than wrestling dynamo Merab Dvalishvili (6.55).
Almeida not only lands a high number of takedowns, but he also controls his opponents for an absurd proportion of his fight time. In his five-fight UFC/DWCS career, he has held his opponents in control positions for 83.85%. That is the highest proportion of control among ranked UFC fighters. Tatiana Suarez is currently second at 74.96%, and the average for a ranked UFC fighter is 22.43%.
In order to be successful in this fight, Jairzinho Rozenstruik will need to find a way to stop takedowns and avoid the control of his opponent. Despite coming from a striking background, Rozenstruik does have some impressive defensive grappling numbers. He has managed to avoid 75% of the takedown attempts he has faced, and he has only been held in control positions for 25.30% of his fight time.
However, there should be some heavy caveats on those numbers. First, only four of his 11 UFC opponents attempted a takedown against him and all four were able to draft him to the ground at least twice. Also, Rozenstruik’s takedown defense is somewhat inflated after Ciryl Gane went two for 14 on takedowns against him. If you recall, Gane recently put his grappling prowess on display against heavyweight champion Jon Jones.
When including only the four fights where his opponents actually tried to take him down, Rozenstruik has been controlled for 31.44%. That is still not a terrible number, but it is much less impressive than his overall 25.30% number.
It seems unlikely that Rozenstruik will be able to avoid the grappling onslaught of Almeida. Not only does he score takedowns, but he is also a finisher on the ground. He has landed 4.04 significant ground strikes per minute and finished all five of his UFC/DWCS fights inside the first two rounds.
Of course, there is a glimmer of hope for Rozenstruik. Almeida has not proven his can withstand a striking assault. He has absorbed only 0.34 significant strikes per minute, but he has only had to deal with a whopping 10 significant strike attempts from his five opponents combined. If Rozenstruik is able to maintain range and land power, he has a chance. However, Almeida’s previous five opponents in the Octagon also had that chance.