The impact of TJ Dillashaw's layoff is an unknown, so let's focus on Cory Sandhagen's mix of volume and power
Before tales of preexisting broken legs were all the rage, Conor McGregor’s excuse of choice was idleness. After losing to Dustin Poirier at UFC 257, he told Jon Anik, “it is hard to overcome inactivity over long periods of time.” If time away from competition is really a big obstacle, then former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw should be in for a rough night against Cory Sandhagen. By the time Dillashaw makes the walk on Saturday, it will have been 917 days since his last fight.
Theoretically, it makes sense that fighters who have been out of action for an extended period of time would be at a disadvantage. However, it is hard to separate time away from other variables, and it is hardly determinant. McGregor had a quick turnaround for the third fight against Poirier and lost once again. This past weekend, Miesha Tate returned from a 1708-day layoff and picked up a stoppage victory.
Dan Tom recently took a look at this for MMAJunkie, per his data collection fighters with a year-plus layoff have a 35-26 record since 2013. Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics book said that fighters with such a layoff had a 35% winning percentage in his dataset. Like previously stated, the length of a layoff is hardly determinant.
The real world is inherently uncertain, so it is best to just simply accept a level of unpredictability. Nate Silver famously created an “uncertainty index” based partially on the number of long headlines in the New York Times (really). Instead of trying to account for uncertainty, let’s focus on the available data.
Sandhagen is an impressive volume striker who makes good use of his range. He averages 6.85 significant strikes per minute, which is the 10th highest rate among ranked fighters. Despite this high volume, Sandhagen absorbs only 2.97 significant strikes per minute. This results in a +2.96 striking differential, which ranks sixth among ranked fighters. This will be extremely hard for Dillashaw to overcome and ahead of the likes of Alexander Volkanovski (+2.71), Max Holloway (+2.68), Aljamain Sterling (+2.64) and Ciryl Gane (+2.53).
Despite seeming like a volume striker, Sandhagen has been making a difference with his power recently. For his UFC career, he has averaged 1.07 knockdowns per 15 minutes. That rate ranks 22nd among ranked fighters.
While there are many high volume strikers and many power strikers, there are very few who resemble both types in their striking numbers. Sandhagen is one of only five ranked fighters who average at least 6.85 significant strikes per minute and 1.07 knockdowns per 15 minutes. The other four fighters meeting this criteria are Paulo Costa (7.03 SLpM and 1.32 KDs per 15), Jiri Prochazka (7.19 SLpM and 1.96 KDs per 15), Tom Aspinall (7.43 SLpM and 1.77 KDs per 15) and major outlier Chris Daukaus (11.78 SLpM and 8.41 KDs per 15).
As you can see on the chart, Dillashaw is not too far behind Sandhagen in these stats. He lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and lands 0.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes. However, there are some issues under the surface. Dillashaw has landed nine knockdowns in his UFC career, but four of those came against Cody Garbrandt who absorbs an unusually high number of knockdowns.
On top of that, Dillashaw struggles at times when he is not able to control pace and range. Against Dominick Cruz, he was able to land 109 significant strikes over the course of the 25-minute fight. However, he needed to throw 408 attempts. Cruz controlled the range and landed 112 significant strikes on only 302 attempts.
Sandhagen’s style is not overly similar to Cruz, but he does utilize his reach and motion similarly. If Dillashaw’s offense involves throwing a large number of attempts, he will likely leave himself open for powerful counters from his opponent.
Dillashaw could make an impact with his wrestler. He does come from a wrestling background and averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, his takedown rate has dropped significantly later in his career with the notable exception of his five takedown performance against John Lineker.
The impact of the layoff on Dillashaw could be a major factor of none at all. The striking numbers seem to favor Sandhagen, but this will be another tough test for him. Dillashaw could provide a different look with his wrestling. However, it will be tough to maintain that over five rounds. Either way, the winner of this match will be squarely in the title picture at 135 pounds.