The numbers favor Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, but that was also the case back at UFC 285

One of the things that has made Valentina Shevchenko such a dominant force has been her ability to fight in multiple ways. She comes from a kickboxing background and has put up impressive striking numbers. For her UFC career, she has landed 3.29 significant strikes per minute and absorbed only 1.99. Her strike absorption rate currently ranks 10th among all ranked UFC fighters. Her resulting +1.30 striking differential is respectably above the average for a ranked fighter (+0.85).

In addition to being a quality striker, Shevchenko can also dictate the pace and space of the fight. She averages 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and has held control positions for 28% of her fight time.

Both of these aspects of her overall fight game were on display in her first fight against Alexa Grasso. In the four round contest, Shevchenko outlanded Grasso 87 to 59 on significant strikes with the vast majority of landed significant strikes coming at distance. “Bullet” also landed four of her six takedown attempts and held control positions for 28% of the fight time. In the two rounds where she scored takedowns (rounds two and three), Shevchenko held control positions for 54% of the time and unanimously won both rounds on all three of the official scorecards. 

On the other hand, Grasso is much more of a striker. She has landed only four takedowns in her 11-fight UFC career. 83% of her landed significant strikes have come at distance, and her opponents have held her in control positions for 19% of her total fight time.

All of this begs the question, how exactly did Grasso happen to win the title when these two faced off at UFC 285 last March?

Grasso won the first round despite being slightly outlanded by Shevchenko on significant strikes (26 to 24). While Shevchenko had the edge in terms of lands, Grasso was the fighter coming forward, and she attempted 14 more significant strikes (65 to 51). It would also not be a stretch to say Grasso had the more impactful lands despite being numerically outlanded. 

The next two rounds were dominated by Shevchenko in terms of control. The then-champion landed a pair of takedowns in each the second and third rounds and had the edge 39 to 22 of significant strikes. Shevchenko not only won the rounds via control, but she also neutralized Grasso’s offense, especially in the second where she managed only seven landed significant strikes.

The fourth round, of course, is where things went off the rails for Shevchenko. Her only takedown attempt came in the first minute of the round, and Grasso defended it well. However, Shevchenko proceeded to have perhaps her best distance striking round in the fight and outlanded Grasso 22 to 12 in the position. It was all for naught as she went for an ill-advised spinning back kick late in the round. Grasso used it as an opportunity to take the back and finish via rear-naked choke submission.

The dynamic for this rematch likely remains the same. Shevchenko showed in the first fight that she is skilled enough to have the edge, at least numerically, in the striking. She also showed that when she is able to score takedowns, she can salt away rounds. This is the type of contest that would swing heavily in favor of Shevchenko in a three-round contest. However, this will be a UFC title fight, and the seemingly more dynamic fighter will have the full 25 minutes to score another finish. Shevchenko remains the favorite, and one of the best female fighters in the history of the sport, but Grasso has already proven that she can win.