Viviane Araujo will need to do more with her takedowns to upset Alexa Grasso
The main event of Saturday’s UFC show appears to have the potential to be an all action striking match. Both fighters land more significant strikes per minute than the average for a ranked UFC fighter, and both fighters absorb more than the same average.
This would appear to favor Alexa Grasso. In her nine-fight UFC career, she has landed 4.92 significant strikes per minute, absorbed 3.79 and therefore has a +1.13 striking differential. On the other hand, Viviane Araujo lands slightly less on a per minute basis (4.76), absorbs more (5.13) and actually has a negative differential (-0.37).
While anything can happen in a fight, it certainly seems like Grasso would be able to consistently outland Araujo over the course of the 25-minute fight. Araujo has not landed a knockdown since her UFC debut in 2019, so she will likely need to find another way to slow down Grasso.
The good news for Araujo is that she has registered some impressive wrestling numbers in the Octagon, while Grasso has shown some weakness defensively. “Vivi” has averaged 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Grasso has allowed 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and avoided only 60% of her opponents’ attempts.
Given these numbers, it seems like Araujo should be able to offset some of Grasso’s advantages in the striking game. However, that might not be the case. Despite the high takedown rate, Araujo has held her opponents in control positions for only 21% of her fight time, and she has still done the vast majority of her striking at distance as 95% of her landed significant strikes have been standing and not in the clinch.
On top of that, Grasso has done a good job scrambling back to her feet and avoiding control positions despite giving up a lot of takedowns. Her opponents have held her in control positions for only 18% of her fight time. If you exclude her fights against Carla Esparza, who appears to control everyone she faces, and Tatiana Suarez, who used to defeat Olympic champions in wrestling, Grasso has allowed only 12% of her fight time to be controlled.
This will be the first fight scheduled for 25 minutes in the Octagon for both fighters, and neither fighter has shown consistent finishing ability to date. Expect this fight to go the distance with Grasso getting the edge in the striking. Even if Araujo gets takedowns, she will need to show she can hold position and do damage in the top position. She has not really displayed that yet, while Grasso has been able to win decisions even when giving up takedowns.