What can similarity scores tell us about Dominick Reyes vs. Jiří Procházka?

In only his second UFC fight, Jiří Procházka has moved up to the main event against a former title challenger. The former Rizin champion certainly deserves the high profile contest as he is riding an 11-fight winning streak that includes victories over former Strikeforce champion Muhammed Lawal, Fabio Maldonado, C.B. Dollaway and Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut. Thanks in large part to the streak, he has moved up to No. 10 in the Fight Matrix rankings and No. 5 in the UFC rankings.

Despite the legitimate credentials, the fact that he only has one fight in the UFCStats.com database makes breaking down his upcoming fight against Dominick Reyes with stats somewhat difficult. However, difficult does not mean impossible. After all, I did write a stats preview for Ben Askren vs. Demian Maia even though Askren had never landed a significant strike in the UFC. 

Including his UFC debut against Oezdemir, Procházka has fought seven fighters with multiple bouts in the database. Let’s see if any of those opponents are similar, at least in terms of statistics, to Reyes. The level of similarity may provide some hints related to Procházka’s prospects in the main event on Saturday.

To determine this similarity, I am going to use a simple classification algorithm called K-nearest neighbor (KNN). KNN uses the concept of Euclidean distance to determine the space between two points. If the distance is small, the points are similar. If the distance is large, the points are less similar. KNN analysis is a favorite of Nate Silver who used it to improve upon Bill James’ similarity score and in the process develop PECOTA. He also used it to create CANTOR, which is an element of his House, Senate and Governor election prediction models. You can get a basic understanding of the KNN calculation from this video. The bottom line is that you can compare multiple variables and return a value that evaluates the overall similarity. 

The analysis will compare the similarity of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), takedowns land per 15 minutes (TD per 15), takedowns allowed per 15 minutes (TDA per 15), submissions attempted per 15 minutes (Sub per 15), submission attempts allowed per 15 minute (SubA per 15), knockdowns per 15 minutes (KD per 15) and knockdowns allowed per 15 minutes (KDA per 15).

The result will provide the most comparable fighter based on those stats, not necessarily in terms of success in the Octagon. For example, both Max Holloway and Shane Burgos are high volume strikers with relatively similar numbers. Even though Holloway has been much more successful, Burgos would be his closest comparable based on the included statistical categories.

Per this analysis, it looks like Oezdemir is the most similar to Reyes among Procházka’s previous opponents. The column on the right is the result of the KNN analysis or similarity score. Remember the smaller the number, the more similar to Reyes.

In fact, if we compare Reyes to all of the fighters currently ranked by the UFC, Oezdemir is actually the 25th most similar out of the 174 ranked fighters. This cuts both ways for Procházka’s prospects against Reyes. On one hand, he won the fight by knockout in the second round. On the other hand, Oezdemir had the lead of significant strikes and probably deserved to win the opening round.

Also, even though Reyes’ stats are somewhat similar to those belonging to Oezdemir, his other comparables are actually even more impressive. Included in Reyes’ top five most similar are current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and former champion Robert Whittaker. The following are Reyes’ top five most similar among the currently ranked UFC fighters.

Reyes is only eight fights into his UFC career, but the fact that he was able to maintain stats similar to Adesanya despite having already faced Jan Blachowicz and Jon Jones could certainly be a positive sign for his future success. 

Even if Reyes is able to stay ahead of Procházka, he will still need to worry about his opponent’s striking power. As previously stated, Oezdemir finished with the edge on significant strikes, but he certainly did not win the fight. Through his 31-fight MMA career, Procházka has scored KO/TKO victories in 24. Oezdemir had never been knocked down in his UFC career until he ran into Procházka, but he failed to make it to the end of the second round.

Reyes had gone seven-straight fights and absorbed 191 significant strikes before his title fight against Blachowicz. In that fight, Blachowicz scored a second-round knockdown and finished the fight. 

Please note that the database only contains selected fights for Procházka’s previous opponents. For example, for Lawal it only includes his fights from Sengoku, M-1 and Strikeforce. His entire run through Bellator is not included. Despite the incomplete data, it is pretty hard to ignore the statistical similarities between Reyes and Oezdemir. The fact that their biggest divergence comes on significant strikes absorbed per minute in probably also a good sign for Reyes.

Considering the early success that Oezdemir had against Procházka, Reyes might also be able to outland the former Rizin champion with similar tactics. However, Procházka will likely retain the power that has defined his pre-UFC run. While Reyes did have a short night against Blachowicz in his last fight, he has often displayed a stout chin. If he is able to avoid those power shots, he should be able to have the edge on Saturday night.