What will Israel Adesanya's defense do to Jan Blachowicz's striking rate?

On Saturday, UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will dare to be great as he challenges light heavyweight Jan Blachowicz with the chance to become a two-division belt holder. 

Prior to the middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, I wrote the following for ESPN.

In addition to his strong striking accuracy, Adesanya has also proven to be a difficult target for opponents. He has successfully avoided 65% of the significant strike attempts against him. Whittaker has also been a tough target, as he dodges 61% of the attempts he faces. However, he has not been nearly as accurate. In fact, Whittaker's 40% striking accuracy is the second-lowest percentage among ranked middleweights and below the average for the same group (46%).

Being inaccurate does not make a fighter entirely ineffective, but it does present some issues. Both Adesanya and Whittaker land a similar number of significant strikes per minute. However, due to Whittaker's depressed accuracy, he needs to work much harder to keep up that effective volume. Adesanya averages only 8.61 significant strike attempts per minute compared to 11.85 for Whittaker.

While the champion's ability to throw with high volume is an asset that helps him overcome his inaccuracy, it can also create openings for opponents to counter. This might explain some of Whittaker's defensive issues, and it could put him in a tough spot against Adesanya. The interim champion is adept at making fighters miss and landing with counters.

Striking in MMA has certainly come a long way over the years. However, many fighters still toggle back and forth between offense and defense instead of presenting a blended approach. For example, if you watch Calvin Kattar against Max Holloway, you can clearly tell when he is blocking and when he is throwing combinations.

On the other hand, Adesanya is able to avoid an opponent’s striking attempts and, seemingly in one motion, land counters. Against Whittaker, he scored the finish by staying in the pocket, avoiding power shots from his opponent and landing the fight-ending blows. 

Adesanya relies on his defense heavily, and it has been a big contributor to his success. In the UFC, he has landed 4.10 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.33 for  +1.77 differential. While absorbing only 2.33 significant strikes per minute and avoiding 65% of opponents’ strike attempts may seem like strong numbers, the two measures actually rank only 31st and 20th respectively among ranked fighters.

One of the reason’s his defense does not statistically stand out from the pack is that he has faced a very tough schedule. Of his nine UFC opponents, seven are currently ranked by the UFC, and Yoel Romero is only unranked after taking his talents to Bellator. However, looking at the impression his striking defense has made on these opponents says a lot about his skills.

All nine of his opponents had a lower significant strikes landed per minute rate against Adesanya than their career mark prior to fighting the current champion. The average decline was about 40%. His most recent opponent, Paulo Costa, came into his fight versus Adesanya landing 8.43 significant strikes per minute. Against the champion, he managed only 1.34 and failed to make it out of the second round.

It will be interesting to see what effect this defense has on Blachowicz. The light heavyweight champion lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 124th among ranked fighters. With a rate that low, he may struggle to land consistently against Adesanya. However, there is certainly reason for optimism in the Blachowicz camp.

In three of his last four fights, his significant striking rate has been over 4.00. The lone exception was his somewhat tedious decision win over former Strikeforce champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Also during the same four-fight stretch, he has showcased impressive power with a knockdown rate of 1.01 per 15 minutes. Perhaps, more importantly, he appears to have found a style that works for him.

Early in his UFC career, Blachowicz seemed to be a jack of all trades yet a master of none. He would fight for takedowns, fight in the clinch and strike when needed. During this recent four-fight stretch, he has focused much more on his striking at range. In fact, in that same span, he has not attempted a single takedown. This newly found strategy led him all the way to the light heavyweight title. The following shows Blachowicz’s significant strikes attempted per minute and his takedown attempts by fight.

Another wild card factor at play in this fight is the fact that Adesanya is moving up in weight. It is hard to quantify the impact that will have on the fight. However, it does make power a concern. FightMatrix, not to be confused with FightMetric, has tracked every finish in UFC history. As the weight class rises so does the share of fights ending via KO/TKO. As you can see in the following chart, the only strong exception to the general trend is women’s featherweight where there have only been 20 fights in UFC history.

Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC. He fought four times for Glory Kickboxing and never suffered a knockdown. Across his entire boxing, kickboxing and MMA career, it appears his only loss via KO/TKO came in a kickboxing match against current Glory two-division champion Alex Pereira. Despite that defeat, it would be easy to say that Adesanya has a durable chin. However, the move up in weight and Blachowicz’s recent power could provide some hope for the larger fighter.