Will Charles Oliveira's hot streak continue against Justin Gaethje?
Charles Oliveira will make his second defense of the UFC lightweight title on Saturday in the main event of UFC 274 against Justin Gaethje. Oliveira has always relied on his submission ability to finish fights. Even as he has diversified his game recently, he can still jump on a choke or hold and end a contest. His 15 submission finishes are far and away the most in UFC history. Demain Maia who sits in second place has only 11.
Oliveira averages 2.79 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is the second highest rate among ranked fighters. The only fighter with a higher submission rate is Andre Muniz (2.88) who has registered eight submission attempts in his first six UFC/DWCS fights. Oliveira is also one of the semi-rare fighters these days to remain a submission threat in multiple positions. He averages 2.50 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, and he is one of only 22 ranked UFC fighters to collect more submission attempts than takedowns on a per 15-minute basis.
In the striking realm, Oliveira does have a positive differential. He has landed 3.44 significant strikes per minute, absorbed 3.13 and therefore has a +0.31 striking differential. He has been outlanded in 10 of his 29 UFC fights, and despite his grappling prowess, he has gone 4-6 in those 10 fights.
Even though the champion has a positive differential overall, he does have a negative differential at distance. At times, he has struggled when forced to engage in extended distance striking contests. In his UFC career, he is 11-2 (with one “no contest”) when less than 60% of his landed significant strikes come at distance. When the proportion of his landed significant strikes rises above 60%, he is only 9-6
While Oliveira is more than capable of engaging on the feet and has averaged 1.19 knockdowns per 15 minutes in his last six fights, the bout would likely swing heavily in his favor if he was able to force Gaethje into grappling exchanges.
While Gaethje has been mostly a prolific striker in his MMA career, he does come from a wrestling background. He was an NCAA All-American for Northern Colorado during his collegiate days. In his nine-fight UFC career, he has successfully avoided 73% of his opponents takedown attempts. His opponents have landed 0.81 takedown attempts per 15 minutes of fight time. Gaethje has allowed his opponents to hold control positions against him for less than two minutes total or only 2.12% of his total fight time.
Of course, the elephant in the room is Gaethje’s fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. He allowed only two takedowns in the fight, but Nurmagomedov needed only 14 seconds of control time to slap on the fight-ending rear-naked choke. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Oliveira does not flourish if given the same opportunity. On the other hand, Oliveira is clearly not the same level of wrestler as Nurmagomedov.
On the feet, Gaethje would expect to have an advantage. He lands 7.50 significant strikes per minute, which is the fifth highest striking rate among ranked fighters. He has also allowed his opponents to land 7.81, which is the worst strike absorption rate among the same group.
While Gaethje’s seemingly porous striking defense is certainly a concern, he has made strides during his UFC run. Of the 725 significant strikes he has absorbed in the Octagon, 420 (58%) were in his first three fights. Since losing against Dustin Poirier in 2018, Gaethje has absorbed only 5.70 significant strikes per minute. While that rate is still higher than the average for a ranked fighter (3.51), it is a much less negligent approach to defense.
One particular element of striking where Gaethje excels is strikes to his opponents’ legs. He lands 2.31 significant leg strikes per minute, which is the second highest rate among ranked fighters. There are currently eight ranked fighters who land fewer significant strikes per minute overall. It will be interesting to see how this plays against Oliveira. Only nine percent of the champion’s absorbed significant strikes have been to his legs, and in theory, leg kicks might give him the opportunity to work for takedowns.
Oliveira might not need to be desperate to get this fight on the floor, but it certainly could not hurt. Gaethje will certainly be a tough challenge, and he deserves to be the favorite if the fight is mostly spent at striking range. Oliveira’s finishing ability certainly plays in his favor in this 25-minute fight, but if he does not end things early, he could be on the receiving end of an extended striking onslaught from the challenger.