Will Chris Daukaus’ striking stats continue to decline against Curtis Blaydes?
Prior to his last fight against Derrick Lewis, I wondered if Chris Daukaus’ incredible striking numbers were the result of limited opposition and a small sample size. In some ways, the fight against Lewis that question.
Daukaus entered his fight against Lewis landing 9.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 3.41. At the time, that +5.62 striking differential was the second highest among ranked UFC fighters, behind only statistical marvel Khamzat Chimaev. Of course, things did not turn out particularly well for him against Lewis. Daukaus landed only 10 significant strikes before being dropped and finished.
That one performance caused a pretty significant drop in Daukaus’ striking stats. He has now landed 7.71 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.51, for a +4,21 striking differential. The drastic change certainly lends credence to the idea that Daukaus’ stats are based on a limited sample. With that being said, his 7.71 significant strikes per minute rate is the sixth highest among ranked fighters, and his +4.21 striking differential ranks fifth behind only Chimaev (+8.60), Sean O’Malley (+4.74), Tom Aspinall (+4.68) and Manon Fiorot (+4.54).
The question now becomes, how far will his striking numbers fall after facing Curtis Blaydes. For the most part, there is little secrecy surrounding what the former NJCAA champion wants to do in the cage. Blaydes lands 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the fourth highest rate among ranked fighters. He has held control positions for 54% of his fight time and really only seems to get in trouble when facing heavy striking power.
Of course, Daukaus has absurd striking power numbers as well. He scored six knockdowns in his first four UFC fights. Even after the Lewis right, he still has landed 5.26 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That is far and away higher than any other ranked UFC fighter. The next highest knockdown rate belongs to Sergei Pavlovich at 3.85.
Blaydes presents a challenge that Daukaus has not faced yet in the UFC. He has only faced two takedown attempts in his five-fight UFC career. Aleksei Oleinik has averaged 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he was also born in 1977. Even though Daukaus’ striking stats are impressive, there is nothing there that suggests he will be able to handle a wrestler determined to take him down and control him for the better part of 25 minutes. In order to win this fight, he will have to show a new dimension of his game. If he is unable to do this, his striking stats will continue to slide, and he will likely suffer his second-straight defeat in the Octagon.