Will Ciryl Gane change his tactics when facing another volume distance striker?
Prior to his last fight against Jair Rozenstruik, I made the case that Ciryl Gane’s distance striking numbers were a good omen for his future success. While he certainly looked like a future title contender, at least statistically, in that fight, Gane will face a much tougher test this weekend against Alexander Volkov. The former Bellator champion’s physical attributes and fighting style present some interesting challenges for the fast rising prospect.
After five fights in the UFC, Gane has a +3.19 striking differential, which ranks fifth among ranked UFC fighters. While his 5.04 significant strikes per minute rate is impressive, his strike absorption rate of 1.85 ranks ninth among ranked fighters. In his last fight, he outlanded Rozenstruik 102 to 42 in significant strikes and was in the driver’s seat throughout the somewhat dull fight.
While those numbers are ahead of Volkov, the veteran is not far behind. On top of that, he has faced the much tougher opposition in the UFC. He lands 5.35 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.68 and therefore has a +2.67 differential. Gane has never faced an opponent with a striking differential currently better than +1.95 in the UFC (Tanner Boser).
Both fighters do the vast majority of their striking at distance, that is standing and not in the clinch. 83% of Volkov’s landed significant strikes have come in the clinch compared to 87% for Gane. However, an interesting dynamic could be at play in this fight due to Volkov’s extraordinary height and reach.
At 79 inches tall and with an 80-inch reach, Volkov is tied for the highest height-weight average among ranked UFC heavyweights (79.5).
In his first five fights in the UFC, Gane has only faced off against one fighter with an average that high, Don’Tale Mayes. While Gane dominated the fight and outlanded Mayes 94 to 32 before finishing via submission in the third round, he went to his grappling much more than any of his other fights. Three of his five landed takedowns in the promotion came in the fight, and against Mayes, 23% of his landed significant strikes came in the clinch. In fact, he landed more significant clinch strikes against Mayes (22), then he has in the rest of his UFC career combined (16).
It is entirely possible that Gane’s fight against Mayes simply played out that way. However, it is also possible that he had a concerted effort to close the distance against a taller and rangier fighter. Doing something similar might be smart against Volkov.
Volkov actually does a good job of avoiding punishment in the clinch. Only 6% of his absorbed significant strikes have come in that position. However, the ground is an entirely different story. 29% of his absorbed significant strikes have come on the floor. Gane lands only 26% of his takedown attempts, but this is mostly due to the fact that he went two for 14 against Rozenstruik and the attempts seemed rather halfhearted.
Nobody has been able to touch Gane in terms of distance striking yet in the UFC. That will certainly be put to the test against Volkov. Gane has shown some ability to take the fight into other positions, and Volkov has struggled at times on the ground. Regardless of how this fight plays out, it will likely say a lot about Gane’s future in the UFC heavyweight division.