Will Colby Covington revert to his usual strategy in rematch against Kamaru Usman?
Prior to the first meeting between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, I spent a lot of time looking at the numbers for grappling and control position striking. At the time, Covington had the better takedown rate at 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 3.96 for Usman. Despite this edge for Covington, Usman had a much better significant striking rates on the ground and in the clinch.
In the end, none of that really mattered as the fight at UFC 245 took place almost entirely at distance. Going into the fight, Covington was averaging 2.87 landed distance strikes per minute, while Usman was landing 1.17 in the position. That also was not a factor in the contest as Usman had the edge in terms of landed distance strikes 156 to 143 and scored a pair of knockdowns.
This sets up a pretty interesting dynamic for Covington in the rematch. The tactics he employed against Usman were certainly out of character. It was the only fight of his UFC career where 100% of his landed significant strikes were at distance. It was only the second fight of his UFC career where he did not land a single takedown. The bout was also the only time he failed to register any control time. I am not in the challenger’s camp, but it seems obvious that they thought the benefits of striking at distance outweighed the benefits of his normal grappling heavy style.
The giveaway is the lack of takedown attempts. Covington has averaged 9.07 takedown attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, which is the fifth highest rate among ranked fighters. The only other time he did not attempt a takedown was against Demian Maia. If he tried the same tactics against Usman that worked against Maia, it is fair to assume that he thought he would have the edge striking at range.
Not only did Covington not have the edge at range, but also Usman has continued to improve as a striker. Going into their first fight, the champion had scored only two knockdowns in his first 10 UFC fights. In the three fights since, he has scored three and stopped both Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal with strikes.
Covington engaged in a distance striking battle against Usman the first time. He not only ended up with the loss but also a broken jaw. If anything Usman has improved as a striker at least in terms of power striking. Covington’s tactics will likely need to change in this rematch, but his options appear limited.
Usman has never been taken down in the UFC. He has successfully stopped all of 20 attempts from his opponents. While Covington is clearly a strong wrestler it is hard to see him dominating via position for long periods of time against Usman. On top of that, he has never really been an overly effective striker in the clinch and on the ground. Covington averages only 0.48 significant clinch strikes per minute and 0.44 significant ground strikes per minute. Those rates rank 75th and 99th among currently ranked fighters.
Usman has always been one of the best in terms of landing significant strikes on the ground. His 1.38 significant ground strikes per minute rate ranks 11th among ranked fighters. He also averages 0.86 significant clinch strikes per minute. That rate is well ahead of Covington and the 23rd best among ranked fighters.
Entering the grappling realm against Usman is likely to be a dangerous endeavour. If he fails on his attempts, he could end up in the clinch where Usman can land. He could also end up on the bottom, which would be an awful situation.
It will be interesting to see what strategy Covington employs against the champion. While he is not a devastating striker in the clinch and on the ground, he has held control positions for 50% of his total fight time in the Octagon. If this fight ends up being another distance striking battle, Usman should be the favorite. However, Covington was even or ahead going into the final round on two of the three scorecards.