Will Conor McGregor's power make up for his defensive liabilities or will it be Dustin Poirier's night once again?

There is a lot on the line for Conor McGregor in his trilogy fight against Dustin Poirier. After stopping Poirier in under two minutes in their first meeting back in 2014, McGregor failed to make it out of the second round in their rematch earlier this year.

After a statistically close first round, Poirier pulled away in the second. In that round, he outlanded McGregor 31 to 14, scored a knockdown and finished the fight with strikes. It was the first time McGregor had been stopped by strikes in MMA, and arguably one of the worst round of his UFC career. In the round, Poirier landed 12.14 significant strikes per minute, which is the second highest rate landed against McGregor in a round in his UFC career.

McGregor has never been a particularly strong defensive striker. He absorbs 4.54 significant strikes per minute, which is the 24th worst rate among ranked UFC fighters. The only round where he absorbed strikes at a higher rate was the second round of his first fight against Nate Diaz (12.86).

One of the reasons McGregor was able to survive and thrive without solid defense is that he has pretty outstanding power for a lighter weight fighter. His 1.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes rate ranks sixth among ranked UFC fighters and ahead of heavyweights like Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1.28) and Francis Ngannou (1.64).

This is a good news/bad news situation for Poirier. On one hand, he has only been knocked down twice in his UFC/WEC career. However, one of those knockdowns came in his first fight against McGregor.

If Poirier is able to avoid McGregor’s power, the fight really seems to swing in his favor. In his UFC/WEC career, Poirier has really feasted against fighters with weak striking defense. In fights where he is able to land more than 3.87 significant strikes per minute, he holds a 17-1 record. Even when absorbing consistent volume, Poirier has been able to not only persist but also pull out the victory. He has absorbed over 100 significant strikes in three different UFC fights, and he has won all three of those fights. 

While Poirier’s chin was able to withstand power from McGregor in the rematch, he has taken a lot of punishment over his UFC/WEC career. He has absorbed 1,145 significant strikes, which is the seventh most among ranked fighters. Poirier has shown a strong chin and has only been dropped twice in a nearly 11-year run, but much like a basement apartment, it only has to fail once for a costly disaster. 

It may not be an entirely causal relationship, but Poirier is 11-1 in the UFC/WEC when he has landed at least one takedown in his fights. He averages only 4.7 significant ground strikes per fight. In fact in his last fight victories, he has outlanded his opponents 94 to 63 in rounds after he landed a change of pace takedown. The wrestling appeared to give McGregor something to think about in their last fight and that dynamic could easily play out once again.

McGregor remains a dangerous opponent. Early in the fight, his power could easily put him in position for a victory. However, Poirier’s ability to withstand punishment has been impressive. If the fight goes long, it swings heavily in his favor. He has feasted on fighters with defensive issues, and McGregor certainly falls into that category.