Will Darren Till once again pay the price for his inactivity?
Last weekend former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley frustrated the MMA faithful as he failed to turn up his volume against noted YouTube boxer Jake Paul. Woodley attempted only 6.79 punches per minute and ultimately dropped a split decision. Fighters who have attempted 6.79 significant strikes per minute in the UFC in 2021 are 56-64-3 in fights that go to decision.
While lack of volume and activity has been an issue for Woodley for years, it has also plagued Darren Till who returns to action this weekend against Derek Brunson. In his UFC career, Till has attempted only 4.92 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 172nd among ranked fighters. Only six ranked fighters have a lower striking volume, and as you can see, many of them are top position grapplers who control position or fighters who have spent a lot of time being controlled.
Till is not a top position grappler. In fact, he shows little interest in controlling positions at all. In the UFC, he has held control positions for only seven percent of his fight time. Since he throws an incredibly low number of significant strike attempts, it should come as no surprise that he lands only 2.27 significant strikes per minute. That rate is the sixth lowest rate among ranked fighters in the promotion. The following shows both the significant strikes attempted per minute and the proportion of time spent in uncontrolled positions for the same group of fighters. The proportion of time spent in uncontrolled positions equals 100 X (Total Fight Time - Control Time - Control Time Against)/Total Fight Time. As you can see, Till is really the only ranked fighter who throws with such little volume despite spending the vast majority of his fight time in neutral positions.
With his lack of striking volume and total disinterest in positional control, it is hard to imagine how Till has won any fights in the UFC. Usually offensive activity is a prerequisite for success in combat sports.
Early in his UFC run, Till made an impact with his striking power. He scored knockdowns in four of his six fights and averaged 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Over his last four fights, he has scored only one knockdown. His knockdown rate now stands at 0.54, which is only slightly above the average for a ranked UFC fighter (0.51).
The good news for Till in this fight is that Brunson is not really a prolific striker either. He has landed only 3.46 significant strikes per minute and 39 percent of his landed significant strikes have come in the clinch and on the ground. Brunson has also been knocked down six times in the UFC and Strikeforce and allowed his opponents to average 0.55 knockdowns per 15 minutes. The average knockdowns allowed per 15 minutes rate for a ranked UFC fighter is only 0.19.
Even with his hesitancy to strike, Till should have a rather clear path to victory if he is able to keep this fight at distance. Even if he does not increase his striking rate, he would appear to have a clear path to victory via his striking power.
However, Brunson will certainly do his best to prevent Till from having that distance to work. The former NCAA Division II All-American averages 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 21st among all ranked fighters. In his last fight against Kevin Holland, Brunson was able to pull the upset after landing six takedown attempts and holding control positions for 16:55 of the 25-minute fight.
Despite the ability to wrestle and control positions, Brunson only lands 0.74 significant ground strikes per minute. He has been credited with five submission attempts in his UFC/Strikeforce career, but he has notched only one since defeating Lorenz Larkin in 2014.
The fact that Brunson’s best path to victory is controlling position for the better part of 25 minutes sort of opens the door for Till. If anything, his reserved style may allow him to be the fresher fighter in the later rounds. In the end, this contest might end up both close and uneventful.