Will Islam Makhachev's control put an end to Charles Oliveira's historic run?
Charles Oliveira has worked himself from someone with the reputation of a featherweight flake into someone in the discussion for greatest lightweight of all time. While he is riding an 11-fight winning streak, he faces a different kind of challenge in Islam Makhachev on Saturday.
While Olivieira’s last two opponents seem intent to avoid engaging on the ground with Oliveira, Makhachev will almost certainly employ different tactics. Since making his UFC debut in 2015, he has averaged 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, which currently ranks 20th among ranked UFC fighters.
Makhachev has also spent 52% of his cage time in control positions. Some fighters are able to score takedowns but fail to hold position following the successful attempt, that is not the case for the lightweight contender. There are currently only six ranked UFC fighters who spend a larger proportion of their fight time in control positions: Khamzat Chimaev (54%), Shavkat Rakhmonov (54%), Bryce Mitchell (55%), Umar Nurmagomedov (57%), Alexandr Romanov (60%) and Erin Blanchfield (60%). The following chart shows the proportion of control time for all ranked fighters (control time/total fight time and control time against/total fight time).
Once the fight hits the floor, Makhachev uses the position to land strikes. 36% of his landed significant strikes have come on the floor, while only 44% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. Makhachev lands only 2.27 significant strikes per minute, which is the fifth lowest striking rate among ranked UFC fighters. However, since so much of his striking is done from control positions, he absorbs only 0.84 significant strikes per minute. There is currently only one fighter who absorbs fewer significant strikes on a per minute basis (Umar Nurmagomedov 0.37).
Oliveira will likely have to deal with Makhachev’s control and top game. Winning fights while your opponent control position is exceedingly difficult in MMA, even for a dynamic fighter like Oliveira. When he has allowed his opponents to hold control positions for less than 25% of the fight time, he has gone 13-3 in the UFC. When that proportion of his opponents’ control time is above 25%, he is only 8-5 with a “no contest.”
The recent champion allows 1.30 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Oliveira has had 13 fights where an opponent attempted a takedown, and he has only managed to avoid the takedown in two of those fights.
On the other hand, being on the ground with Oliveira is not exactly a comfortable position. He averages 2.89 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is the second highest rate among ranked fighters behind only Chimaev at 3.49. He also has the most submission wins in UFC history with 16. The next closest fighters are Demian Maia and Jim Miller, both tied with 11.
Fighters have been able to score takedowns against Oliveira and hold control positions in the past. For example, in 2020 he faced off against Kevin Lee. In the first two rounds and before Lee gassed out, he was able to score a pair of takedowns and control 64% of the fight time.
However, the fight is also informative of how difficult this strategy is to implement against Oliveira. Despite having the positional advantage, Lee was exhausted at the start of the third, and Oliveira actually won both the first and second rounds on all three scorecards.
Unless Makhachev tries an entirely new strategy, he will almost certainly land takedowns in this fight. Controlling the top position for the majority of a 25-minute fight, is a viable path to victory. However, it is certainly dangerous against a submission threat like Oliveira, and it means that the recent champion will likely get his chance to do damage on the feet as well.