Will Jiří Procházka's finishing ability take him all the way to a victory over Glover Teixeira and the light heavyweight title?
After a successful stint in Rizin, Jiri Prochazka burst onto the scene in the UFC with back-to-back stoppage wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes. He has had only two fights in the Octagon, and his total cage time with the promotion is a little over 15 minutes. Obviously, we are dealing with a small sample, but his statistics have been pretty incredible.
In the UFC, he has landed 7.19 significant strikes per 15 minutes, which is the eighth highest rate among all ranked fighters. That rate is well ahead of his opponent on Saturday. UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira has averaged only 3.72 significant strikes per minute, which not only lags behind Prochazka, but it is also below the average for a ranked fighter (4.30).
On the other hand, he has seemed, at best, disinterested in striking defense. He has allowed his two opponents to land nearly half of their significant attempts (48%) and absorbed 6.80 significant strikes per minute. That absorption rate is currently the fourth worst rate among all ranked UFC fighters behind only Paulo Costa (6.85), Calvin Kattar (5.19) and Justin Gaethje (7.46).
This leaves Prochazka with a less than stellar +0.39 striking differential. While that is not the best differential, it really does not seem like something Teixeira will be able to exploit. The champion has a -0.11 differential, which is well below the average for a ranked fighter (+0.81).
Volume is not the only difference in the approach to striking of these two fighters. In the UFC, Prochazka has seen 94% of his significant strikes come at distance. This represents the fourth highest proportion of distance strikes among ranked fighters behind only Sean O’Malley (95%), Viviane Araujo (95%) and Manel Kape (97%). On the other hand, Teixeira does a much larger proportion of his striking on the ground. In the UFC/WEC, 43% of his landed significant strikes have been ground strikes.
Even during his recent six-fight winning streak, Teixeira has been outlanded at distance 203 to 114. However, he has made up for that on the ground. For his UFC/WEC career, he has averaged 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has recently emphasized his ability to control. During the same streak, he has held control position for 43% of his cage time. In his last two fights against Thiago Santos and Jan Blachowicz, he has upped it even more with 72% of his time in control.
It will be interesting to see how this style of offense plays against Prochazka. In the UFC, the challenger has faced exactly two takedown attempts and stopped one. During his Rizin run, he actually faced several fighters with a strong wrestling/grappling background including Satoshi Ishii, Muhammad Lawal, C.B. Dollaway and Brandon Halsey. Prochazka went 4-1 against these opponents, but the performance against Halsey should give his supporters cause for concern.
Halsey was a NCAA Division I All-American in college and previously held the Bellator title. Against Prochazka, he scored a takedown and advanced to the back in the first 20 seconds of the bout. The shot came from very far out and had very little setup. Prochazka survived and eventually got the stoppage via striking at the 6:30 mark. However, Halsey spent some pretty significant time on top, and Teixeira showed he can make the most of those opportunities in his last fight against Blachowicz.
Teixeira is a legitimate submission threat, and he can make a difference with his striking on the floor. However, if he is unable to score a stoppage, he will likely need to control the majority of the five-round fight to score a decision. While this will be difficult against a dynamic fighter like Prochazka, it is entirely possible.
One of the reasons this will be difficult is that Prochazka’s offensive philosophy makes him a dynamic finisher. In the UFC, he has averaged 1.96 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and he has finished both of his opponents. For his entire career, he has 25 knockouts in 32 professional fights. Teixeira has allowed only five knockdowns in his UFC/WEC career at a rate of 0.34 knockdowns per minute.
Prochazka’s blistering start to his UFC career and his finishing ability make him rightful favorite in this match. Nobody should be surprised if he is able to hurt Teixeira early in the fight. However, Teixeira has been durable during his career, and he has shown recently that veteran savvy can go a long way. Prochazka has not really been tested on the ground to this point, and Teixeira certainly has the skill set to do just that.