Will Rob Font's volume style hold up against Marlon Vera?
Rob Font is an impressive volume striker. He lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute, which is the 23rd highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. Font lands at a high clip while only absorbing 3.55 significant strikes per minute, which leaves him with an impressive +2.09 striking differential. That differential ranks 18th among the same group.
In theory this sets up a pretty simple dynamic for his upcoming fight against Marlon Vera. “Chito” lands only 4.08, while absorbing 4.27, and therefore has a negative differential (-0.12). Vera will likely be unable to match Font’s volume, and this could lead to a fight where Font continually outpoints his opponent for the better part of 25 minutes.
This is often what happens when Font is at his best. For example, in his first 25-minute fight in the UFC, he badly outlanded former champion Cody Garbrandt in all five rounds and finished with a 176 to 63 edge. He also racked up the strikes against current Bellator bantamweight champion Sergio Pettis and had a 111 to 71 advantage on significant strikes.
However, in his last fight against Jose Aldo, Font’s volume approach did not work out for him. Yes, he did outland the former champion 149 to 86 on significant strikes, but he also suffered a pair of knockdowns and lost a wide decision. The judges’ scorecards were 50-45, 49-46 and 50-45.
Font had the edge from a numerical standpoint, but Aldo was clearly landing the cleaner and more powerful shots on the way to a decision. This is often a hard way to win fights in MMA. Boxing judges routinely reward more polished offense, while MMA certainly seems to favor volume for volume’s sake.
With that being said, there is some reason to believe that Vera might be able to win with this strategy. In his last fight against former champion Franke Edgar, Vera was slightly outlanded 94 to 88, but he still scored a knockdown in the third and finished the fight. Font will likely build up a number advantage, but if Vera can make a difference with the strikes he lands, he should be able to take the victory.
Unfortunately for Vera, he has not been a power striker historically. His knockdown against Edgar was only the sixth of his UFC career, and it was his first since dropping Frankie Saenz in 2019. In between Saenz and Edgar, Vera went six-straight fights without a knockdown.
One area where Vera could have an advantage is his diverse approach to targeting. 167 of the 177 ranked UFC fighters see 50% or more of their landed significant strikes land to their opponents’ heads. That is true for both Font (74%) and Vera (51%). However, Vera has landed a much larger proportion of his strikes to other targets.In fact, Vera’s 23% leg strike proportion ranks 24th among ranked fighters.
Font has only a one-inch reach advantage in this fight, so Vera’s ability to land leg kicks could be a big factor. Font is at his best when he is landing from the outside at a high clip, but he could find himself eating kicks at an extended range while he works his way inside. Vera’s may not have shown extraordinary striking power in the UFC, but he could easily slow Font down with shots to the leg.
Early in Font’s UFC career, he seemed to lower his volume when facing a higher quality of opposition. As noted prior to his fight against Garbrandt, his lowest striking volume performances came in his toughest fights. He was able to get over that hurdle against Aldo even though it did not yield a victory. He will need to continue that approach against Vera and survive a tough five-round fight to advance his career to the next level.