Will Sergei Pavlovich's power be a problem for Curtis Blaydes?

MMA promotions love to headline cards with heavyweight fights. While this often results in some unsavory contests, this weekend’s offering from the UFC has the potential to be an intriguing contest with implications for the heavyweight title picture.

Sergei Pavlovich joined the UFC in 2018. After a loss in his debut to Alistair Overeem, he has rattled off five-straight victories including wins over fringe contenders Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. While the win streak is impressive, the way he has won these fights has created some buzz.

All five of these victories have been first-round stoppages, and he has scored knockdowns in all five fights. After six fights in the UFC, Pavlovich is averaging 6.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This is by far the highest knockdown rate among ranked UFC fighters. Pavlovich’s nearest contemporary is fellow heavyweight Chris Daukaus (3.95) who has cooled down considerably since a hot start to his UFC run.

Since all of his fights have ended in the first round, Pavlovich has not spent that much time in the cage. This has also inflated his striking rate numbers. He is currently averaging 8.07 significant strikes per minute, which ranks fourth among ranked UFC fighters. He has absorbed only 4.30 significant strikes per minute, which leaves him with a +3.78 striking differential. That measure ranks eighth among ranked fighters.

Pavlovich’s stats paint the picture of a fighter who has mostly steamrolled his opposition. For the most part, his opponents have been willing to engage with him in brawls. In his UFC debut, Overeem attempted two takedowns, finished one and eventually finished the fight on the floor. Since that fight, Pavlovich has been forced to defend only one takedown. Shamil Abdurakhimov failed on his only attempt and lasted a shade over four minutes before being finished.

Curtis Blaydes certainly has the skills and experience to put Pavlovich’s takedown defense to the test. The former junior college national champion has averaged 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the sixth highest rate among ranked fighters. He has also spent 52% of his fight time in control positions, which ranks eighth among the same group.

Despite this wrestling prowess, Blaydes has seemingly changed up his tactics in recent fights. In his last two fights against Daukaus and Aspinall, he did not even attempt a takedown and won both fights. Of course, the Aspinall fight ended early via injury.

Many former college wrestlers seem to gradually draft away from their wrestling roots. It varies from case to case, but the culprit seems to be something along the spectrum of wanting to mix the martial arts to wrestling gets harder as you get older. Blaydes’ striking at distance has come a long way, but the path of least resistance in this fight certainly involves some elements of grappling. Otherwise, it could be yet another quick victory for Pavlovich.