Will Tom Aspinall still be looking for a tough test after Saturday?

Tom Aspinall’s last fight against Curtis Blaydes was meant to be a big test for the impressive heavyweight contender. However, the fight lasted only 15 seconds before Aspinall bowed out with an injury. He returns on Saturday against a less high profile opponent in Marcin Tybura. His status as the top heavyweight prospect in the promotion is once again on the line, but this time he also needs to prove he can return to form after a serious injury.

Excluding the Blaydes fight, Aspinall’s prior form in the UFC has been beyond impressive. In his six-fight UFC career, he has landed 7.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbed only 2.87. The resulting +4.54 striking differential is the highest among all ranked fighters. The only fighters who have even come close to matching Aspinall in this metric are fellow heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich (+4.39) and Umar Nurmagomedov (+4.12).

Four of Aspinall’s five victories have come in the first round, and he has averaged 2.00 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This rate ranks third among ranked fighters behind only Chris Daukaus (3.95) and Pavlovich (6.31).

Aspinall’s prodigious stat product extends into the grappling realm as well. He has landed every single one of his takedown attempts and has averaged 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. That rate ranks 14th among ranked fighters.

On one hand, it is easy to be in awe of Aspinall’s fight stats to date. On the other hand, one could also make the argument that his quick finishes have inflated his stats, and therefore the numbers do not accurately portray his prospects as a fighter. Eventually, he is going to run into an opponent who can push him out of his comfort zone.

Blaydes certainly looked to be that opponent, but can the same be said about Tybura? The 37-year-old fighter has won seven of his last eight fights with his only defeat coming against Alexander Volkov. He lands a respectable 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he has only a +0.24 striking differential. 

Aspinall enters this fight as a rather large favorite, and he will certainly get the opportunity to show he has returned from injury. On paper, Tybura does not appear to be the type of opponent to put a dent in Aspinall’s fighting stats.