With Jessica Andrade as new opponent, Erin Blanchfield toughest test to date is tougher
Erin Blanchfield had been set to take a big step up in competition on Saturday against Taila Santos. However, Santos bowed out of the main event last weekend, and now Blanchfield takes perhaps an even bigger step against former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade.
Since making her debut in 2021, Blanchfield has been mostly dominant and has mowed down her opposition. Last November, she scored a first-round submission victory over post-fight celebration enthusiast Molly McCann to improve her UFC record to 4-0.
The win opened a lot of eyes and left many viewing Blanchfield as a future contender in the women’s flyweight division. The supporters might be onto something as Blanchfield’s grappling based approach has been impressive. She has held her opponents in control positions for 62% of her fight time. Among ranked fighters, this proportion is behind only Muhammad Mokaev (73%) and budding heavyweight star Jailton Almeida (84%).
She has achieved this level of control by being a persistent takedown threat. Blanchfield has averaged 5.82 takedown attempts and 4.00 landed takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. By spending so much time in control positions, Blanchfield has limited the striking offense of her opponents. She has absorbed only 2.45 significant strikes per minute, which is well below the average for a ranked UFC fighter (3.53).
Despite these superb numbers, there is reason for legitimate concern for Blanchfield fans. The first, and most obvious, issue is that she has not yet faced a fighter the caliber of Andrade. On Saturday will she be able to establish position easily and do so without absorbing damage? This remains to be seen.
The second reason for concern is a bit more under the surface. As previously stated, Blanchfield’s significant strike absorption rate of 2.45 per minute is rather impressive. However, one might expect it to be a bit better considering how little time she has actually spent at distance. If a fighter spends most of their fight time in control positions, the fighter does not really have the opportunity to absorb many significant strikes. The only two fighters who spend a larger share of their cage time in control positions, Moaev and Almeida, have absorbed only 0.99 and 0.34 significant strikes respectively.
Let’s try to take a look at her striking defense when her positional advantages are stripped away. The following table shows the number of distance strikes Blanchfield has landed and absorbed per minute of what I am calling neutral time. All strikes landed when the fighters are standing and not in the clinch are considered at distance (and always significant). Neutral time is defined as any fight time where neither fighter is in a control position (this is not a perfect analysis since there are technically neutral positions in the clinch and on the ground, but they are rare).
Blachfield’s overall distance strikes absorbed per minute of neutral time rate is 6.47, which is actually the 18th worst rate among ranked fighters. While her overall strike absorption numbers have been great, she has clearly benefited from her ability to fight in her desired positions. Of course, in doing this analysis, I am taking an already small sample size (four fights) and chopping it up into an even smaller sample (only 15 minutes of neutral time).
With all that being said, at the very least Blanchfield will likely have to slug it out at range against Andrade for extended periods of time over the course of their 25-minute fight. This will say a lot about her prospects as a title contender. Andrade is an offensive striking dynamo. She lands 6.80 significant strikes per minute, which is the 11th best striking rate among ranked fighters. She also is not afraid to walk through offense as she has absorbed 5.26 significant strikes per minute.
Andrade also might give Blanchfield trouble in the clinch as she is transitioning into takedowns. During her UFC career, 19% of her landed significant strikes have come in the clinch position. Andrade might also be able to explode into a few takedowns of her own.
The former champion will also not make it easy for Blanchfield in the grappling realm. She has allowed 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is not particularly outstanding defense. However, Andrade has spent only 10% of her fight time being controlled by her opponents.
Blanchfield certainly has the opportunity to make a case for herself as the next contender at 125 pounds. Her stats point to her having a legitimate shot in this fight, but that will be put to the test by the former champion.