Distance striking seems to favor Kevin Holland, but his defensive wrestling is cause for concern
Kevin Holland has a pretty big advantage over Derek Brunson in terms of striking differential. Holland lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.77 and therefore has a +1.97 differential. On the other hand, Brunson lands a bit less per minute, 3.77, and absorbs a bit more, 2.95. This leaves him with only a +0.82 differential.
If you break down these differentials by position, it is clear that Holland’s statistical domination at distance is the main driver of his strong differential.
In many ways this makes sense based on their fighting styles. Holland is a powerful striker who likes to work at range, while Brunson is a former NCAA Division II All-American wrestler. There is a similar divergence when it comes to the wrestling stats. Brunson lands 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 25th among all ranked fighters. On the other hand, Holland has landed only nine takedowns in his 11-fight UFC/DWCS career.
However, despite being a strong takedown threat, Brunson still does the vast majority of his striking at distance. 64% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance, while only 20% have been on the floor.
Brunson lands a respectable 17.72 significant ground strikes per takedown. However, those numbers are greatly inflated by two specific fights. He landed 21 significant ground strikes against Roan Carneiro and 26 in his last fight against Edmen Shahbazyan he landed 21. Other than that, Brunson has never landed more than 10 significant ground strikes in a fight.
Holland stops 52% of the takedown attempts against him. That sounds pretty respectable, but takedown defense as a percentage is pretty much useless as a stat. In reality, Holland ultimately gives up a lot of takedowns. He has allowed his opponents to land 2.52 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 166th out of 176 ranked UFC fighters.
The good news for Holland is that even though he gets taken down a lot, he does not allow very many significant strikes on the ground. Through 11 fights, Holland has absorbed only 75 significant ground strikes. 47 of those came in his UFC debut against Thiago Santos. Since that fight, he has absorbed only 28 significant ground strikes in his last nine fights.
These stats seem to portend a fight where Holland has the advantage striking at range, while Brunson is able to score takedowns and perhaps not do a lot of damage on the floor. Dominating in terms of position is especially tough in a 25-minute fight. Brunson would need to control at least three rounds in order to take a decision. However, it is still a viable path to victory. Prior to Michael Chiesa’s fight against Neil Magny, I pointed out that he leaves himself with little room for error. He then went out and dominated the fight via position despite landing only 24 significant strikes in a 25-minute fight.