Can Song Yadong use the Marlon Vera game plan to best Cory Sandhagen?
Cory Sandhagen has proven himself to be a volume striker. He has averaged 6.42 significant strikes per minute, which is currently the 18th highest striking rate among ranked UFC fighters. In his 10-fight UFC career, Sandhagen has outlanded eight of his opponents. The only two occasions where he has failed to have the numerical edge over his rival came against Aljamain Sterling (quick submission defeat) and Frankie Edgar (quick knockout victory). Sandhagen maintains solid defense and only absorbs 4.50 significant strikes per minute. His +1.93 rate is the 28th best among ranked fighters.
In the main event of Saturday’s card, Sandhagen faces off against Song Yadong. Song is currently riding a three-fight winning streak and appears to be a budding contender in the bantamweight division. With that being said, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he is able to consistently outland Sandhagen over the course of a 25-minute fight.
The good news is that numerical supremacy is not always an impeachable path to victory. In fact, Sandhagen comes into this fight after back-to-back losses against TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan. In both fights, Sandhagen landed more significant strikes and dropped the decision. Both of these fights represent Song’s best strategic approaches, and one is likely more viable for him.
Against Dillashaw, Sandhagen had the edge in striking, and 17 of the 23 media judges tracked by MMADecisions thought he deserved the nod. However, two of the three actual judges disagreed, and Dillashaw took the split. In the fight, the former champion attempted 19 takedowns and held control positions for 8:22 (34%) of the fight time. Dillashaw landed only two of those 19 attempts, but perhaps failed takedowns are considered effective grappling under the enigmatic rules of the sport.
Unfortunately this is not really a strategy that Song can duplicate. He averages only 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has landed only three takedowns in his UFC career with his last one coming against Vince Morales in 2018. On top of that, he seems to enjoy working at distance and has spent only 13% of his fight time in control positions.
Sandhagen’s fight against Yan might be a better blueprint for Song. In the bout, Sandhagen averaged 6.76 significant strikes per minute and outlanded Yan in the first three rounds. However, he likely deserved to only win the first. While his volume was there, Yan was the one landing the harder and more meaningful offense. In the third round, Yan scored a knockdown and basically took over from that point.
It is probably fair to say that Song is not as polished of a striker as Yan, but he has displayed power in the UFC. He has averaged 0.75 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is above the average for a ranked fighter (0.48). On top of that, Song has scored knockdowns in back-to-back fights against Julio Arce and Marlon Moraes.
One fighter who has been particularly successful with this type of strategy recently has been Marlon Vera. He has been outlanded in his last three fights against Frankie Edgar, Rob Font and Dominick Cruz. However, Vera landed seven knockdowns across those three bouts and won all three. Does Song have the same level of power as Vera? Does Sandhagen have similar durability issues as those three fighters? Both of these questions are crucial going into the fight.
In the past durability has not been an issue for Sandhagen. Prior to the fight against Yan, he had not been knocked down in the UFC. Back in 2019, he went a full three rounds with John Lineker without absorbing a knockdown. Lineker left the UFC that year with a 12 knockdowns (0.96 per 15 minute rate), and has stopped three of four opponents in ONE since the exit.
In the end, Sandhagen’s volume will likely be a major asset against Song. Not only does he land more strikes than most of the currently ranked fighters, but Song has also never faced a fighter with a significant strikes landed per minute rate near Sandhagen.
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