Jamahal Hill appears ready to hasten the decline of Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos has really fallen on hard times recently. After 18 fights in the Octagon, he earned a title shot against Jon Jones at UFC 239 in 2019. In many ways, the fight was much closer than expected, but the then-champion managed to walk away with a split-decision victory and the title. At the time it looked like Santos might be a legitimate challenger in a post-Jones light heavyweight division. However, the fight appears now as if it was a sign of decline.
Santos has been outlanded in four of his last five fights. His only victory during the stretch came via a lackluster decision over Johnny Walker. In the fight, Santos landed 11 or fewer significant strikes in all five rounds.
Through his first 18 UFC fights, Santos had a +2.85 striking differential. That rate would rank 12th among currently ranked UFC fighters. However, in his last five fights, he has only a -0.31 differential. That measure would rank 150th out of the 175 ranked fighters.
On Saturday Santos will face off against Jamahal Hill whose career seems to be trending in the opposite direction. He made his UFC debut in 2020 after winning on the Tuesday night show with an unnecessarily long name. Outside of a loss against MMA’s version of a knuckleball pitcher in Paul Craig, Hill has looked outstanding.
Prior to Ciryl Gane’s fight against Jair Rozenstruik, I noted that early success striking at distance was often an indicator of future success in the UFC. That has certainly been the case for Hill. He outlanded his first two DWCS/UFC opponents 194 to 69, and his striking numbers have continued to be outstanding.
Hill lands 7.06 significant strikes per minute, which is the 10th highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. At the same time, he has only absorbed 3.71 per minute. That leaves him with a +3.35 striking differential. That measure is the eighth highest among ranked UFC fighters and behind only the one-fight UFC career of Emily Ducote (+3.52), Khamzat Chimaev (+3.58), Casey O’Neil (+3.97), Umar Nurmagomedov (+3.98), Manon Fiorot (+4.07), Sean O’Malley (+4.27) and Tom Aspinall (+4.54).
While the numbers suggest Hill has the ability to thoroughly distance himself from a low volume striker over the course of a 25-minute fight, he has also displayed impressive power in the UFC. He has averaged 1.42 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which ranks sixth among currently ranked fighters. In his last two fights, he was able to score two knockdowns and finished while landing only 10 significant strikes.
This sets up a moderately interesting dynamic for the fight against Santos. Despite his decline in effective striking activity, “Marreta” has retained power. Even during his current five-fight streak, he scored knockdowns against Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira. For his UFC career, he has scored 14 knockdowns, which is tied fourth most in UFC history behind only Jeremy Stephens (18), Anderson Silva (18) and Donald Cerrone (20).
It would be wise for Hill to rack up the strike totals instead of wading into range with power shots. At least early in the fight, he should exploit Santos’ declining volume. Hill deserves to be the favorite in this contest, but it is still his first five-round fight, and Santos represents perhaps his toughest challenge to date.
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