Leon Edwards appears to lack a path to victory in rematch against Kamaru Usman

Aug 18, 2022

One of Leon Edwards’ biggest strengths as a fighter is his ability to mix the martial arts. 71% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance, and he has held control positions against his opponents for 26% of his cage time. Edwards is really at his best when he is able to control range in the striking and hold positions in the clinch and on the floor.

This strategy has helped him build an 11-2 record and earn a shot at the welterweight title. Unfortunately for him, it is hard to really see these skills manifesting on Saturday against champion Kamaru Usman.

These two fought back in 2015, and Usman won a unanimous-decision victory. Edwards was able to outland Usman at distance 17 to 11, but Usman landed six of his 13 takedown attempts and collected 10:50 of control time in the 15-minute fight (72%). From a percentage perspective, Edwards has never allowed more control time in a UFC fight. He also only held control positions for 4% of his fight time, which is the second lowest of his career.

Edwards defended well in the early round and only allowed Usman to land two significant ground strikes in the first two rounds. He even took the first round on two scorecards despite being controlled for 3:41 by threatening with a triangle. However, he could only hold on for so long. In the third round, Usman held control positions for 4:21 and landed 23 significant ground strikes.

It is entirely possible that Edwards is the better striker at range. However, even if he has success, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he can keep the fight at distance. Edwards is good at holding position, but unfortunately for him, Usman is better at it.

Edwards is a solid offensive wrestler. He averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is only slightly below average for a ranked fighter. On the other hand, his defensive wrestling appears to be somewhat porous. He has allowed his opponents to land 1.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. That rate is worse than the average for a ranked fighter, 1.11.

Usman has moved away from his wrestling a bit as his career has progressed, but he still averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. If Edwards does start to land consistently, there is little reason to believe Usman will not be able to change the place and pace of the fight.

Edwards will likely get a chance to flex some of his distance striking. Usman has been a much more willing participant in striking battles recently. At the same time, he has chosen this new stylistic approach in only certain fights. When facing fellow grapplers, he does a much larger proportion of his striking at distance. His highest percentage of distance strikes came against Sergio Moraes (94%), Colby Covington (89% and 87%), Demian Maia (83%) and Warlley Alves (83%). In no other fight did more than 65% of his sig strikes come at distance

The wrestling will likely remain part of the game plan against a striker like Edwards, and that is likely bad news for him. He will need to make the most of his striking opportunities, but he is not a volume striker. He currently averages 2.62 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 160th out of the 175 currently ranked fighters. Edwards also averages only 0.28 knockdowns per 15 minutes and has only two knockdowns in his last 11 fights.

On the other hand, Usman has seven knockdowns in his last five fights. Look for him to go to his wrestling and/or clinching early in the fight to set up his striking. Edwards is a game fighter, and he might have success in the first few rounds. However, it is hard to see him maintaining enough offense to win three of five rounds or stop the champion.

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