Tom Aspinall takes another step up in competition against Curtis Blaydes
So far in his UFC career, Tom Aspinall has passed every test he has faced. On Saturday, he faces yet another exam in Curtis Blaydes.
Through five UFC fights, Aspinall has landed 7.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.65. That +4.68 striking differential is the highest among all currently ranked fighters by a pretty impressive margin. There are only two other ranked fighters with a differential above four: Sean O’Malley (+4.27) and Manon Fiorot (+4.07).
Aspinall is clearly a gifted offensive striker, and his 7.33 landing rate is the seventh highest among ranked fighters. However, it is extremely rare to see a fighter land with such high volume while maintaining solid defense. In his five UFC fights, he has absorbed only 39 significant strikes total. Part of this is obviously due to his prolific finishing ability, but has absorbed only 2.65 per minute and avoided 64% of his opponents’ significant strike attempts.
Blaydes also has standout defensive striking numbers. He absorbs only 1.68 significant strikes per minute, which is the seventh best rate among ranked fighters. Of course, this is due in large part to his dominating wrestling game.
The former junior college national champion wrestler averages 6.06 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This is the third best takedown rate for a ranked fighter, behind only Merab Dvalishvili (7.30) and Ricky Simon (6.43).
Not only has Blaydes scored takedowns, but he has also been able to hold opponents in control positions for extended periods of time. In his UFC career, he has spent 52% of his cage time in control positions. It will be interesting to see how this plays against Aspinall. He has never been taken down inside the UFC, and he has spent 0% of his cage time being held in control positions. On the other hand, he has faced only two takedown attempts in his five-fight run. Serghei Spivac attempted a pair of takedowns in their under three-minute fight and failed on both. Spivac is not the wrestler that Blaydes is, but he does average 3.29 landed takedowns per 15 minutes and dominated the likes of Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy with his grappling.
In the end, the grappling stats might not matter at all in this contest. The version of Blaydes who recently took out Chris Daukaus in under six minutes appeared to be a different fighter entirely. It was the first time in his 15-fight UFC career where he did not attempt a single takedown. He scored only the second knockdown of his career and landed the fourth-most distance strikes in a fight for his career (24).
Against Aspinall, it might not be a wise choice for Blaydes to abandon the wrestling entirely. Aspinall has landed 65.85% of his significant strike attempts, which is the second highest striking accuracy behind only Umar Nurmagomedov (70%). As previously mentioned he has avoided 64% of his opponents’ significant attempts. While takedown accuracy might not be the most informative stat, striking accuracy and defense are usually signs of skilled strikers. Fighters not only prolong their careers by avoiding damage from opponents, but they also open up opportunities to counter. While Blaydes has come a long way in the striking department, there is a steep learning curve when it comes to striking defense.
Blaydes might be able to stand and strike with Aspinall at range for moments, but employing that strategy will likely get him into trouble. Aspinall can take the opportunities to counter, and he is a devastating finisher. He has finished all five of his UFC fights with only his bout against former champion Andrei Arlovski reaching the second round.
Aspinall averages 5.09 fight finishes per 15 minutes of fight time. This is not only the highest rate among ranked fighters, nobody else comes particularly close. Sergei Pavlovich is the closest at 3.85. Charles Oliveira who holds the UFC record for most finishes in a career with 19 averages only 1.37 finishes per 15 minutes.
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Reading Recommendation
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